Hong Kong, Coronavirus, Biden: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Jan. 22, 2021

U.S. and World News

  • hong-1131642972The city of Hong Kong has announced a lockdown that will begin at midnight local time as a result of 61 new coronavirus cases. The lockdown will include about 150 residential buildings in the Yau Tsim Mong district and will be enforced by almost 2,000 “disciplined services officers”. The 7.5 million people living in these residential buildings will be restricted from leaving the area until the lockdown is lifted. There have been scattered reports that China has been enforcing localized lockdowns in several areas with outbreaks, as it tries to protect the city of Beijing. China has pointed to the imports of frozen foods as the reason the that the virus was brought into the country.
  • Following Inauguration Day, President Joe Biden is moving forward with a series of executive orders. Joe Biden signed an executive order on Thursday instructing U.S government agencies to use the Defense Production Act to increase supplies of COVID tests, N95 masks, and vaccine syringes, citing the lack of critical supplies to fight the pandemic. The Biden administration is planning for an order that would require people to wear masks in airports and on planes which is similar to the order that was signed on Wednesday requiring people to wear masks on all federal properties. President Biden is also pushing for schools to open in the first 100 days of his presidency.

Markets

  • Markets rebounded sharply this week. The S&P 500 jumped 1.96% and closed at 3,841. The Dow Jones rose 0.63% and closed at 30,814. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 2.35% and the Dow Jones is up 1.37%.
  • Yields are little changed from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.43% and 1.08%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude fell this week. Prices were down -0.53% and closed at $52.14 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 7.22%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose by 1.39% and closed at $1,853.82 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down -2.35%.
    Economic Data
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 900,000 and the four-week moving average rose by 23,000 to 848,000
  • The level of housing starts rose by 5.8% to seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 1.70 million units versus expectations for a reading of 1.56 million
  • Building permits rose by 4.5% versus expectations for a decline of -1.7%
  • Existing home sales rose by 0.7% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 6.76 million units versus expectations for a decline of -1.9%

Fact of the Week

  • Through 9/30/20, 65% of the mortgages that were originated in the United States YTD were refis of existing mortgages (source: Inside Mortgage Finance).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

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Stimulus, Biden, Impeachment: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Jan. 15, 2021

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1216448609On Thursday evening, President-elect Joe Biden revealed his proposal for a $1.9 trillion fiscal relief package. The proposed spending includes $1,400 stimulus payments to all Americans, an extension of expanded unemployment benefits through September of 2021 that would include an additional $400 a week, $370 billion of aid to state and local governments, and $190 billion for public health funding. Additionally, an increase of the federal minimum wage to $15/hour has been included in the bill which has been strictly opposed by Senate Republicans. Due to the overwhelming size of the relief bill and the inclusion of a minimum wage hike, it is expected that the fiscal relief bill will face opposition in the Senate, where 10 Republican votes will be required.
  • The U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump for the second time this year following the event that took place at the Capitol on January 6th. The article of impeachment accuses President Trump of “willfully inciting violence against the government of the United States”, referring to his tweets in the days following up to January 6th and his rally that he held in Washington on that day. President Trump was subsequently removed and/or suspended from most all popular social media platforms. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced today that she plans to send the impeachment to the Senate sometime next week, as President-elect Joe Biden is scheduled to be officially sworn into office on Wednesday, January 20th.

Markets

  • Markets fell this week. The S&P 500 lost -1.46% and closed at 3,768. The Dow Jones fell -0.91% and closed at 30,814. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 0.38% and the Dow Jones is up 0.73%.
  • Yields fell slightly this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.45% and 1.09%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude fell this week. Prices were down -0.13% and closed at $52.17 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 7.52%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell by -1.22% and closed at $1,826.49 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down -3.79%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 965,000 and the four-week moving average rose by 18,000 to 834,000
  • Import prices rose by 0.9% versus expectations for an increase of 0.7%
  • Import prices ex-petroleum rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4%, in-line with expectations and the year-over-year rate rose by 1.4% versus expectations for an increase of 1.3%
  • The core CPI index rose by 0.1%, in-line with expectations and the year-over-year rate rose by 1.6%, in-line with expectations
  • Retail sales fell by -0.7% versus expectations for a flat reading
  • Core retail sales fell by -1.9% versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.3% versus expectations for an increase of 0.4%
  • PPI ex-food, energy, and trade services rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%
  • Industrial production rose by 1.6% versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%
  • Business inventories rose by 0.5%, in-line with expectations
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell by 1.5 points to 79.2 versus expectations for a reading of 79.5

Fact of the Week

  • More new brokerage accounts (an estimated 10 million) were opened during calendar year 2020 than in any other year in US history (source: JMP Securities).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

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Vaccine, Stimulus: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Jan. 8, 2021

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1266494637The year 2020 ended with the United States remaining far behind its goal of 20 million vaccinations, sitting at just 6.25 million vaccinated. There has been criticism of the Trump administrations strategy of withholding 50% of the available supply, so that they can then distribute the second wave of doses for the second round of vaccinations that is needed for immunity. Further, the FDA has backed this up by stating that there is no evidence that immunity can develop with just a single dose, and that both are needed. President Elect Joe Biden stated his intention to accelerate the distribution of the vaccine, releasing every available dose when he takes office. While this strategy will certainly speed up the process of distribution, it will not solve the issue that hospitals currently have with government regulations recently put in place. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City May Bill de Blasio have had their trouble as they argue the effectiveness of Cuomo’s penalties for New York hospitals missing vaccination targets.
  • As a result of the Georgia run-off election, Democrats are now set to control the senate in the coming weeks with Vice President Elect Kamala Harris being the tie-breaker. The Democratic sweep has led to expectations of potential trillions in new stimulus, until this afternoon when Democratic Senator Joe Manchin III poured cold water on that potential after he said that he would “absolutely not” support a new round of stimulus checks. With the new composition of the Senate, Joe Biden and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer cannot afford to lose one Democratic vote to pass legislation. Shortly after the Senator’s statement, he issued a follow-up statement that he would evaluate Joe Biden’s aid plan when the time comes, adding further confusion to expectations.

Markets

  • Markets continued rallying in the first week of the year 2021. The S&P 500 surged 2.48% and closed at 3,825. The Dow Jones rose 2.31% and closed at 31,098. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 2.48% and the Dow Jones is up 2.31%.
  • Yields rose sharply higher this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.48% and 1.11%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude rose this week. Prices were up 8.43% and closed at $52.61 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 8.43%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell by -2.70% and closed at $1,847.49 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down -2.70%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell to 787,000 and the four-week moving average fell by 19,000 to 819,000
  • Construction spending rose by 0.9% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%
  • The ISM manufacturing index rose by 3.2 points to 60.7 versus expectations for a reading of 56.8
  • The ISM non-manufacturing sector rose by 1.3 points to 57.2 versus expectations for a reading of 54.5
  • Private sector employment in the ADP report fell by -123,000 versus expectations for an increase of 75,000
  • Factory orders rose by 1.0% versus expectations for an increase of 0.7%
  • Wholesale inventories were flat versus expectations for a decline of -0.1%
  • Nonfarm payrolls fell by -140,000 versus expectations for an increase of 50,000
  • The unemployment rate came in at 6.7% versus expectations for a reading of 6.8%
  • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.8% versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%

Fact of the Week

  • The life expectancy at birth of an American baby in 1971, i.e., 50 years ago, was 71.1 years. The life expectancy at birth of an American baby today is 78.7 years. Thus, life expectancy in the United States has increased 7.6 years over the last half century while the full retirement age under social security has only increased by two years, i.e., American life expectancy at birth is increasing at the rate of 1 ½ years every decade (source: Center for Disease Control).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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Stimulus, Vaccine: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Dec. 31, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1253347371$600 stimulus checks from the new COVID Relief bill are currently being distributed to bank accounts, according to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Tuesday evening, the Treasury Secretary tweeted that payments to those who have direct deposit would state going out, and some might have received them as early as Tuesday night. Payments will continue to roll out through next week, and payments to those who do not have direct deposit began shipment on Wednesday.
  • In the UK, the COVID-19 vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca was authorized for emergency use in the county, welcome news for a country that has been hit hard recently by the virus, resulting in strict lockdown measures.

Markets

  • Markets were up heading into the new year. The S&P 500 was up 0.36% and closed at 3,756. The Dow Jones was up 1.35% and closed at 30,606. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 18.05% and the Dow Jones is up 9.41%.
  • Yields moved lower this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.36% and 0.91%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude rose this week. Prices were up 0.39% and closed at $48.42 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -20.07%.
  • The spot price of Gold ticked higher by 0.83% and closed at $1,899.09 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 25.16%.

Economic Data

  • Pending home sales declined by 2.6% in November, against consensus expectations for an unchanged reading.
  • The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased by 1.6% in October, above consensus expectations.
  • Initial jobless claims declined to 787,000 against expectations for an increase for the week ended December 26.

Fact of the Week

  • Carolina Panthers offensive lineman Russel Okung has become the first player in NFL history to receive payment in digital currency. It was announced that half of Okung’s $13 million base salary from the 2020 season will be paid in bitcoin (Source: USA Today)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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Vaccine, Stimulus: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Dec. 18, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1266490076_370The Federal Drug Administration advisory panel has confirmed on Thursday that the benefits of approving Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine outweigh the risks, putting the ball in the FDA’s court for approval, which could come as soon as tomorrow. According to Bloomberg, as of this morning, over 1.1 million people across four countries have been vaccinated. In the United States, the vaccine has been given to health care workers, as public workers on the front lines are first in line. Pfizer has publically expressed its happiness throughout the week with the success of the vaccine rollout, though there have been some scattered reports of supply chain issues. Given the approval from the FDA, Moderna’s vaccine distribution is expected to run smoother, as the vaccine does not require special storage equipment to keep it at extreme cold temperatures.
  • Stimulus negotiations in Washington have made significant progress throughout the week, with both sides having a lot invested, it is anticipated that a deal will be done, however it seems that talks will run into the weekend as differences still remain. The size of the stimulus package, as it stands now, is just under $1 trillion and does not include the major sticking points of state and local aid and liability protections for businesses. It is being reported that the stimulus package will include $600 stimulus checks to individuals and unemployment benefits of $300 a week. The latest complication is a Republican Senator’s demand to terminate the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program by the end of the year, when it was originally set to expire in the CARES Act.

Markets

  • Markets rallied this week. The S&P 500 rose 1.29% and closed at 3,710. The Dow Jones climbed 0.46% and closed at 30,179. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 16.57% and the Dow Jones is up 7.91%.
  • Yields moved higher and the yield curve steepened this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.38% and 0.94, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude rose this week. Prices rose 5.24% and closed at $49.01 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -19.73%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose by 2.18% and closed at $1,880.61 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 23.94%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 885,000 and the 4-week moving average rose by 34,000 to 813,000.
  • Industrial production rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Import prices rose by 0.1% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Import prices ex-petroleum was flat for the month versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%
  • Retail sales fell by -1.1% versus expectations for a decline of -0.3%
  • Retail sales core/control fell by -0.5% versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%
  • Business inventories rose by 0.7% versus expectations for an increase of 0.6%
  • The level of housing starts rose by 1.2% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 1.547 million units versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Building permits rose by 6.2% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%

Fact of the Week

  • The total rounds of golf played by Americans is projected to increase by 50 million rounds in 2020, the largest year-over-year growth in 23 years. In 1997, spurred on by the appeal of a then 21-year old Tiger Woods, the number of rounds increased by 63 million rounds (source: National Golf Foundation).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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Middle East Peace Deal, China Trade: O2 Wealth Economic Update, August 14, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • dubai-467829216_370Yesterday, a historic diplomacy deal was agreed too between the United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The agreement marks a significant step towards peace in the Middle East and a path towards economic growth and technological innovation between the two countries. Israel and the UAE plan to sign bilateral agreements in the near future for investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, healthcare, and more. Israel has also agreed to suspend its planned annexation of areas in the West Bank. Israel, the UAE, and the United States plan to work together on the expansion of diplomacy, trade, and security cooperation in the Middle East, while also sharing a common view of the threats that exist in the region.
  • Representatives from the United States and China were set to hold a video conference tomorrow for a review of the Phase 1 trade deal, until late this morning when it was announced that the meeting will be rescheduled. As part of the agreement, China agreed to purchase an additional $200 billion in goods compared to 2017, a level that was originally seen as unrealistic and that it remains far from achieving. The goal seems even more far-fetched now as a result of a significant global economic setback. Tensions have been rising between the two countries for a variety of reasons, one of them being recent U.S. actions on Chinese tech companies such as bans on TikTok and WeChat that are set to go into effect in September. Other issues that are expected to be discussed when the meeting takes place is Chinese communications firm Huawei and China’s new national security law for Hong Kong.

Markets

  • Markets rose again this week. The S&P 500 rose 0.69% and closed at 3,373. The Dow Jones rose 1.87% and closed at 27,931. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 5.65% and the Dow Jones is down -0.68%.
  • Interests rates spiked this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.30% and 0.71%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil rose this week. Prices rose 2.26% and closed at $42.17 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -30.97%.
  • The spot price of Gold dropped -4.44% and closed at $1,945.21 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 28.20%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 228,000 to 963,000 and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 158,000 to 872,000 million. Claims fell by 34,000 in New York, 25,000 in Florida, and by 23,000 in California. Claims rose by 7,000 in Nevada and by 4,000 in Kansas.
  • Job openings rose by 518,000 to 5.889 million versus expectations for 5.3 million
  • The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.6% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Core PPI rose by 0.3% versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%
  • The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3% and the year-over-year rate rose 1.0% versus expectations for an increase of 0.7%
  • Core CPI rose by 0.6% versus expectations for an increase of 0.2% and the year-over-year rate rose by 1.6% versus expectations for an increase of 1.1%
  • Retail sales rose by 1.2% versus expectations for an increase of 2.1%
  • Core retail sales rose by 1.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.8%
  • Nonfarm productivity rose by 7.3% versus expectations for an increase of 1.5%
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment rose by 0.3 points to 72.8 in its preliminary reading versus expectations for a reading of 72.0
  • Industrial production rose by 3.0%, in-line with expectations
  • Business inventories fell by -1.1%, in-line with expectations

Fact of the Week

  • Thursday marked 100 days since the March 23rd lows we saw in the market. The last 100 days have been the best performing 100 day period in market history, with the S&P 500 returning 50.8% over the period. The previous best was the 100 day period ending 7/30/2009, when the market returned 45.9% (Source: Strategas Research Partners)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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TikTok, China, Stimulus: O2 Wealth Economic Update, August 7, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • President Trump signed a pair of executive orders targeting TikTok and WeChat. The action references national security concerns and (starting in 45 days) bars any transactions with the apps’ China-based owners – ByteDance and Tencent Holdings. While TikTok said it will pursue all remedies available, including American courts, it also faces a Sept. 15 deadline before its services are banned in the U.S.
  • Talks broke down between Democrats and the White house over a new stimulus deal, after closed door talks between Republicans and Democrats came to a stand still. Democrats offered to cut their previously $3.4 trillion deal down to $2.4 trillion, asking republicans to come up from their $1 Trillion dollar package. Republicans refused, and Secretary Mnuchin called the $2.4 trillion price tag a “non-starter”.

Markets

  • Markets were higher this week. The S&P 500 surged 2.49% and closed at 3,351. The Dow Jones gained 3.88% and closed at 27,433. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 4.92% and the Dow Jones is down -2.5%.
  • Interests rates rose slightly this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.23% and 0.56%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil rose this week. Prices rose 2.3% and closed at $41.22 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -32.49%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 3.02% and closed at $2,035.55 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 34.16%.

Economic Data

  • Factory orders increased 6.2% in June, above expectations.
  • Initial jobless fell by 249k to 1.186 million, versus median forcast of 1.4 million.
  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 1.8 million, well above the expected 1.5 million.
  • Average hourly earnings increase 0.2% in July, better than the expectation for a continued decline.

Fact of the Week

  • Patrick Mahomes made headlines last week the Kansas City Royals announced he had become a part owner in an undisclosed deal. Mahomes, aged 24, had just signed a record setting contract with the Kansas City Chiefs for $503 million. However, Mahomes is not the youngest team owner in the nation. That title belongs to Serena Williams 2 year old daughter Alexis, who was listed as part of a 30 person ownership group for LA’s new National Women’s Soccer League Team (Source: Yahoo Sports)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.