U.S. and World News
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set for a big day tomorrow as parliament is set to vote on a Brexit deal that the Prime Minister agreed on with the European Union on Thursday. Boris Johnson stated that he is “very confident” that the House of Commons will support the deal, which is widely expected to be a historically close vote and will determine whether there will be a deal or not before the October 31st deadline. The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) stated that they are unable to support the deal as it stands, casting doubts over the passage of the deal tomorrow. If the MP’s reject the deal tomorrow, it is still possible that a vote on a “no-deal Brexit” could pass, but that is unlikely given historical votes on the this motion. The likely outcome if the Brexit deal is voted down tomorrow is that the United Kingdom will ask the European Union for another extension.
Markets
- Markets were mixed this week after corporate earnings and Chinese economic data. The S&P 500 rose 0.55% and closed at 2,986. The Dow Jones fell 0.13% and closed at 26,770. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 20.96% and the Dow Jones is up 16.90%.
- Yields rose slightly this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 1.56% and 1.75%, respectively.
- The spot price of WTI Crude moved lower this week this week. Prices fell 1.83% and closed at $53.70 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 18.26%.
- The spot price of Gold rose by 0.11% and closed at $1,490.67 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 16.23%.
Economic Data
- Initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 214,000 and the four-week moving average rose by 1,000 to 215,000. Claims increased by 5,000 in California.
- The level of housing starts fell 9.4% to 1,256k versus expectations for a reading of 1,320k
- Building permits fell by 2.7% versus expectations for a decline of 5.3%
- Retail sales fell 0.3% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
- Core retail sales remained unchanged versus expectations for a 0.3% increase
- Industrial production fell by 0.4% versus expectations for a decline of 0.2%
Fact of the Week
- In 2008, China’s economy was smaller than the economy of Japan ($4.5 Trillion vs $4.9 Trillion). In 2019, China’s economy is nearly triple that of Japan’s economy ($14.2 Trillion vs $5.2 Trillion)
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Rich Gartelmann, CFP® – (630) 844-5730 – rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson, CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava, CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com
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Ahead of scheduled trade negotiations today with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the Trump administration has added 28 Chinese entities to an export blacklist as a consequence of Beijing’s repression of Muslim minorities. The Trump administration stated that this move is completely unrelated to trade negotiations and it will prevent the blacklisted companies from buying American components without government approval. China quickly responded by saying it would take countermeasures, “urging the U.S. side to immediately correct its mistake.” and announced a plan to restrict visas for U.S. nationals with ties to anti-China groups. The Chinese delegation arrived in Washington yesterday where negotiations began and President Trump announced that talks went “very well”. After the meeting at the White House, President Trump told the press that the U.S. and China have “come to a substantial phase 1 deal”. In exchange for the cancelation of the United States planned increase in tariffs on Chinese goods on October 15th, China has agreed to increase purchases of U.S. agriculture goods from $8 billion to $40-$50 billion and has agreed to be more transparent with regard to their currency.
Weekend drone strikes on the heart of the Saudi oil industry forced the kingdom to shut down half its crude production, amounting to a loss of 5.7M barrels a day, or roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude oil. Yemen’s Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels claimed credit for the attack, saying they sent 10 drones to strike at important Aramco facilities, including the world’s largest oil processing plant and a major oil field. The disruption sent WTI futures as much as 15.5% higher overnight to $63.34, the biggest intraday percentage gain since June 22, 1998, while President Trump authorized a release of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as necessary. For the global oil market, the 5.7M bpd Saudi halt is the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss following the Invasion of Kuwait and Iranian Revolution.
Early this morning, China announced its plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of American goods including soybeans, automobiles, and oil as a response to the Trump administrations planned additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The new retaliatory tariffs are scheduled to take effect on September 1st and December 15th, the same schedule as the United States 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods goes into effect. This new set of retaliatory tariffs targets U.S. farms and factories, bringing the total tariff on U.S. automobile exports to 50%. The announcement comes as the G7 summit takes place in France and the Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming, two critical meetings where the trade war with China will be discussed.
President Trump met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House yesterday as the two sides are reportedly coming close to reaching a deal. Reports have also indicated that the United States will keep tariffs on China until a deal is reached. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said that the two sides have reached a new consensus on a trade agreement, meanwhile, President Trump stated that no meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place until a deal is reached and that he could see a deal being made within four weeks.
Two years ago today, the United Kingdom asked the European Union for a divorce and today is the day that Brexit was finally supposed to transpire, however, many questions remain about how the whole thing will shake out. The new deadline is now two weeks away and lawmakers are left scrambling to pass a deal to avoid the “no-deal” Brexit, an outcome that no one wants. Theresa May also announced this week that she would resign if the deal was approved in a last ditch effort to save her deal, but was answered by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party promising to continue to reject her deal. The withdrawal agreement that was voted on today was rejected, as expected, meaning the hard deadline for Brexit is April 12th. Following the vote today, European Council President Donald Tusk announced a summit for April 10th, raising more questions about the possibility of another extension.
After the French national debates over government policy ended last weekend, 10,000 “Yellow Vest” protestors took to the streets for the 18th weekend, bringing violence and anger. Nearly 100 businesses on the Champs-Elysees were vandalized or torched. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stated in late February that the protests have shaved 0.2% off of economic growth. Starting this Saturday, “Yellow Vest” protestors will be banned in the hardest hit neighborhoods and France is forcing its banks to raise capital buffers to protect against any economic downturns.
On Sunday, an Ethiopian Airlines flight transporting 157 people on a Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashed during takeoff, killing all passengers on board. The incident occurred less than five months after another Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashed in Indonesia killing 189 people and investigators have drawn similarities between the two crashes, especially since both took place during the take-off phase. Immediately following the crash, several countries grounded the aircraft and placed a ban on the 737 MAX 8 from flying into and out of the country. On Wednesday, Boeing announced that they would temporarily suspend the entire fleet “out of an abundance of caution and in order to reassure the flying public of the aircraft’s safety”. Boeing is expected to perform a software update on the entire fleet in mid-April.
British Prime Minister Theresa May traveled to Brussels again this week in a last-ditch effort to gain support from European Union leaders so that Britain can leave independent of European Union rules. Earlier this week Theresa May announced a plan that would provide $1.6 billion in funding to boost economic growth in the more indigent areas of the U.K., some say this is an attempt to buy votes and to pick up any leftover potential supporters that may remain. Theresa May has a chance of getting her Brexit deal passed if the Irish border impasse is resolved, however, this remains a significant impasse. It is predicted that there will be an extension and that Theresa May will have a deal passed by next month. The Prime Minister spoke today, stating that there is a chance that Britain may not leave the European Union at all.
Earlier this week, President Trump extended the March 1st trade truce deadline between the United States and China, citing “substantial trade progress”. If the deadline had not been extended, the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese products would have been increased to 25% from 15%. Chinese equities soared over 5% on the news into bull market territory. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that it’s too early to draw conclusions on a trade deal between the two countries and that even if a deal was made, the United States would need to maintain the threat of tariffs.