Brexit, Hurricane Michael: Wealth Economic Update Oct. 12, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair stated that there is a 50-50 chance of reaching another Brexit referendum as it is doubtful that Theresa May will secure a majority vote for a divorce deal with only six months until the deadline. Many issues remain unresolved before the deadline, including trade issues, security issues, regulatory uncertainty, and whether there will be a border separating Ireland. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that Britain will be welcome to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership after it leaves the European Union, allowing it to retain its “global strength”.
  • hurricane-1035765586_370Rescuers have begun searching for survivors after Hurricane Michael flattened towns along the coast of the Florida panhandle. The hurricane made landfall early afternoon on Wednesday in Mexico Beach, Florida as a strong Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour and knocked out power in about 1.5 million homes and businesses in the Southeast region. The storm is responsible for 12 deaths across Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia and that number is expected to rise according to FEMA Administrator Brock Long. Offshore oil rigs in the Gulf were evacuated as the hurricane approached Florida, cutting oil production by over 40% and natural gas output by 33%.


Markets

  • Stocks plunged this week following last week’s declines. The S&P 500 fell 4.06% and closed at 2,767. The Dow Jones declined by 4.17% and closed at 25,340. Year to date, the S&P is up 5.06% and the Dow Jones is up 4.27%.
  • Yields pulled back this week after rising rapidly last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 3.02% and 3.17%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil also fell dramatically, losing 3.81% this week to close at $71.51 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 18.97%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 1.20% this week, and closed at $1,218.04 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 6.51%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 214,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 3,000 to 210,000. Claims rose by 7,000 in Kentucky, and by 4,000 in North Carolina.
  • The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.06% in September versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. The weaker figure was driven by lower energy prices. The year-over-year rate came in at 2.27% versus 2.4% expected.
    • Core CPI rose by 0.12% in September versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. The year-over-year rate in Core CPI remains at 2.2%.
  • The producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in September, in-line with expectations.
    • PPI ex-food and energy rose by 0.2% in September, in-line with expectations.
  • Import prices rose by 0.5% in September month-over-month versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. The higher than expected reading was led by the foods, feeds, and beverages category.
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined 1.1 points to 99.0 in the October preliminary reading against expectations for a reading of 100.5.

Fact of the Week

  • A greater percentage of Millennials have all of their pre-tax retirement money invested in cash and bonds (20%) than those that have all of their pre-tax retirement money invested in stocks (19%). 2,593 Millennials (ages 20-36 in 2017) were surveyed in the 4th quarter 2017 (source: Transamerica Retirement Survey).

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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NAFTA, Italy, EU: Wealth Economic Update Oct. 5, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • cow-184614299_370On Sunday night, the United States and Canada reached an agreement for the revised North American Free Trade Agreement just before the deadline of October 1st. The new agreement that includes Mexico will be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA. Canada agreed to open its dairy market to the United States while the United States agreed to keep the dispute-resolution process in the deal which would provide Canada protection from potential tariffs imposed by the United States. President Trump calls the deal the “most important deal we’ve ever made by far” and stated that he is skeptical of congress passing the deal as a result of political motives.
  • Italy has given into pressure put on by the European Central Bank and reduced its growth forecasts. The Euro fell dramatically and the Italian 10-year yield hit a four-year high as the second largest debt laden European country was closely reaching an October 15th deadline for submitting its final budget deal. The new growth forecast for this year was cut to 1.2% from a previous estimate of 1.5% and the budget deficit target was assumed at 2.4% of GDP for 2019, 2.1% for 2020, and 1.8% for 2021. Italy’s stock market declined this morning as a result of the lower growth forecasts.


Markets

  • Stocks continued their slide this week. The S&P 500 fell 0.95% and closed at 2,886. The Dow Jones declined by 0.36% and closed at 26,447. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.44% and the Dow Jones is up 8.73%.
  • Yields rallied dramatically this week, spooking the domestic stock market. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 3.07% and 3.23%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil finished the week higher again, gaining another 1.49% this week to close at $74.34 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 23.67%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 1.08% this week, and closed at $1,203.77 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 7.60%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 207,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims remained unchanged at 207,000. Claims fell by 6,000 in North Carolina, rebounding this week after Hurricane Florence.
  • The ISM manufacturing index fell 1.5 points to 59.8 in September versus expectations for a reading of 60.0.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing index rose by 3.1 points to 61.6 in September versus expectations for a reading of 58.0.
  • Construction spending rose by 0.1% month-over-month in August versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. Private residential construction was weaker in August.
  • Private sector employment rose by 230,000 in September month-over-month versus expectations for a 184,000 gain. This was led by professional and business services.
  • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 134,000 in September month-over-month versus expectations of an increase of 185,000.
    • The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that Hurricane Florence had an estimated impact of around 50,000-60,000 jobs. The figure was also affected by the number of employees not at work due to weather.
    • These estimates would result in an actual figure of about 190,000
    • The unemployment rate declined to 3.7% versus 3.8% expected
    • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, in-line with expectations.

Fact of the Week

  • The Small Business Optimism Index reached its all-time high in August, surpassing the mark set in July 1983. The index measures small business owners expectations for hiring, business growth, and profitability. (Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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Mexico/Canada trade, Oil prices: Wealth Economic Update Sept. 28, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • The Trump administration is willing to move forward on a trade agreement with Mexico, excluding Canada, if Canada does not agree to grant the United States access to its dairy market. This has been a very important point for the United States throughout the negotiation process. President Trump also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on cars imported from Canada, as the administration continues to further pressure Canada. So far, Canada is not calling the bluff, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer expressed a negative view on current negotiations with Canada. Congress members stated that there would be very little support for a deal that excluded Canada.
  • oil-859021152_370Oil prices skyrocketed as United States sanctions on Iran are set to begin on November 4th and OPEC has agreed to keep oil production at its current levels rather than pump more. The United States promised that the oil market would be sufficiently supplied in time for the sanctions to begin. OPEC’s decision against increasing supply could force the United States to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep oil prices under control.


Markets

  • Stocks pulled back this week while the S&P 500 finished its strongest quarter since December of 2013. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% and closed at 2,914. The Dow Jones lost 1.07% and closed at 26,458. Year to date, the S&P is up 10.47% and the Dow Jones is up 8.73%.
  • Yields finished the week almost unchanged from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.95% and 3.06%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its surge higher another 3.90% this week to close at $73.54 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 22.34%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell 0.71% this week, and closed at $1,191.53 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 8.54%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 214,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims remained unchanged at 206,000. Claims rose by 10,000 in North Carolina, 7,000 in Kentucky, and 3,000 in South Carolina and California.
  • Durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in August, exceeding expectations of a 2% increase. This increase reflected a 13% increase in transportation equipment.
    • Durable goods orders ex-transportation rose by 0.1% versus expectations of 0.4%.
  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence rose to 138.4 in September versus expectations of a 132.1 reading. This is the highest level since 2000.
  • Sales of new single-family homes rose by 3.5% in August to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 629,000 versus expectations of 630,000. The prior three months were revised down by a net 40,000. The largest increase was in the Northeast region.
  • The core PCE price index ex-food and energy rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August versus expectations of 0.1%.
    • Personal income rose by 0.3% in August versus expectations of 0.4%
    • Personal spending rose by 0.3% in August, in line with expectations
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 100.1 in the August final reading versus expectations of a 100.6 reading.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25% at the September meeting. Jerome Powell indicated that the FOMC would continue with gradual rate hikes and did not refer to the current monetary policy as “accommodative”, which is what it was previously referred too.


Fact of the Week

  • Of 2,000 American’s surveyed, 48% thought that the market was flat over the last 10 years, while 18% thought the market was down the last 10 years. As of last Friday, September 21st, the S&P 500 had returned 163.42% on a total return basis , or 10.16% annualized. (Source: Betterment, Bloomberg)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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China tariffs, North-South Korea: Wealth Economic Update Sept. 21, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • Earlier this week, the United States put in place a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods, below the originally planned 25% rate. However, this rate will increase to 25% at year end, leaving more time for negotiations. China also came back with a more gentle response than expected, placing tariffs on $60 billion of United States goods and stating that they will not use currency devaluation as a means to boost their exports. It is rumored that China is planning to cut average tariff rates on imports from most of its trading partners, including the United States, as soon as next month. This move would be in line with China’s pledge to support more imports.
  • north_south_korea-187088168_370South Korean President Moon stated that during a three-day summit with Kim Jong Un this week, the North Korean leader expressed interest in having a second summit with Donald Trump in the near future to speed up denuclearization. Moon also said that Kim is now open to inspections at North Korea’s last existing facility for underground tests in Punggye-ri, where he previously would not allow inspections. The United States demands that North Korea accomplishes a “verifiable, irreversible, dismantlement” of its nuclear program before the U.S. satisfies their demand of an end to the war.


Markets

  • Stocks continued moving higher this week amid easing trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose 0.86% and closed at 2,930. The Dow Jones surged 2.25% and closed at 26,744. Year to date, the S&P is up 11.03% and the Dow Jones is up 9.88%.
  • Yields also rose much higher this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.95% and 3.07%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil surged 3.01% this week to close at $70.84 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 17.85%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.36% this week, and closed at $1,199.18 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 7.95%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 201,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved down by 2,000 to 206,000. Claims fell by 7,000 in California and 2,000 in Florida and South Carolina, but rose by 2,000 in New Jersey. This is the lowest level of jobless claims since 1969.
  • Housing starts rose by 9.2% in August to 1,282k versus expectations of 1,238k. Housing starts in the West region were mostly responsible for the higher than expected figure.
  • Building permits fell by 5.7% to an annualized rate of 1,229k in August versus expectations of a 0.5% increase. This was the largest drop since 2011.
  • Existing home sales were flat in August versus expectations for a 0.5% increase.


Fact of the Week

  • During the 30 years ending 8/31/2018, the best 12 month performance and the worst 12 month performance happened in a single 24 month period. The worst performance occurred from 03/01/2008 to 2/28/2009 while the best performance occurred 03/01/2009 to 2/28/2010. (Source: BTN Research)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

China tariffs, Hurricane Florence: Wealth Economic Update Sept. 14, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • After trade discussions broke down three weeks ago, the Trump administration has invited Chinese officials for another round of negotiations. President Trump wrote in a tweet on Thursday that “We are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us”. Meanwhile, an editorial in the China Daily read “The Trump administration should not be mistaken that China will surrender to the U.S demands.” This new round of trade negotiations comes before additional tariffs of 10-25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports are being prepared by the United States. China is expected to retaliate in a similar fashion to these tariffs.
  • hurricane-480386290_370Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 hurricane, made landfall this morning on the North Carolina coast bringing sustained winds of 90 miles per hour and a life-threatening storm surge. The slow moving storm is expected hang over the Carolinas this weekend and drop catastrophic amounts of rain causing a lot of flooding. The power was knocked out in nearly 500,000 homes and hundreds were rescued this morning as the storm made landfall.


Markets

  • Stocks rebounded this week. The S&P 500 rose 1.21% and closed at 2,905. The Dow Jones rose by 0.94% and closed at 26,155. Year to date, the S&P is up 10.09% and the Dow Jones is up 7.50%.
  • Yields rose higher again this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.90% and 3.00%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil increased by 1.83% this week to close at $68.99 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 14.77%.
  • The spot price of Gold dropped 0.33% this week, and closed at $1,192.99 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 8.43%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 204,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved down by 2,000 to 208,000. Claims rose by 5,000 in California and 2,000 in Michigan. This is the lowest level of jobless claims since 1969.
  • The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.22% in August versus expectations for a 0.3% increase.
    • Core CPI ex-food and energy rose 0.08% in August versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. The soft reading was led by the apparel category. The year-over-year rate declined to 2.2%.
  • Wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in July versus expectations for a 0.7% increase.
  • The producer price index (PPI) declined by 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
    • Core PPI ex-food and energy rose 0.1% versus an increase of 0.2% expected.
  • Retail sales rose by 0.1% in August versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. The weaker sales growth was a result of lower auto sales.
    • Core retail sales rose 0.1% in August versus an increase of 0.4% expected.
  • Import prices fell 0.6% in August versus expectations for a 0.2% decline
  • Industrial production rose by 0.4% in August versus expectations of a 0.3% increase.
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment September preliminary reading came in at 100.8 versus expectations of 96.6.


Fact of the Week

  • In a “private letter ruling” issued on August 20th, the IRS approved the use of a program to help aid employees that have student debt. The program would allow employees that make student loan payments to still receive an employer contribution in their 401(k) as if the loan payment was a pre-tax 401(k) contribution. (Source: IRS)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

NAFTA, Japan Typhoon: Wealth Economic Update Sept. 10, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • The United States and Canada met to further negotiate a new NAFTA deal once again this week after talks broke down last Friday. President Trump threatened to entirely terminate NAFTA if Congress interferes with these negotiations. While the President certainly has the power to do this given a six month notice, the decision would present many legal challenges. Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau is also taking a tough stance through negotiations stating that “No NAFTA is better than a bad NAFTA deal for Canadians and that’s what we are going to stay with”.
  • osaka_japan-481541250_370bOn Wednesday, Western Japan was hit with the most powerful typhoon that the country has seen in 25 years. Typhoon Jebi hit the city of Osaka with sustained winds of 100 miles per hour killing 11 people, injuring 470, and leaving over a million homes without power. Kansai Airport, a major airport for the tourist cities of Osaka, Kyoto, and Kobe still remains closed after vicious waves sent a large tanker into a bridge connecting the airport to the mainland. It is not yet known when the damaged and flooded airport will be reopened, raising concerns about the impact on tourism and the economy. On Thursday, Northern Japan was hit with a strong earthquake, closing another major airport. 22 were killed, 38 were missing, and roughly 3 million homes were without power after the earthquake.


Markets

  • Stocks fell this week. The S&P 500 dropped by 0.98% and closed at 2,872 The Dow Jones dropped by 0.14% and closed at 25,917. Year to date, the S&P is up 8.79% and the Dow Jones is up 6.51%.
  • Yields rose higher this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.82% and 2.94%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil decreased by 2.85% this week to close at $67.81 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 12.81%.
  • The spot price of Gold dropped 0.35% this week, and closed at $1,196.93 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 8.13%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 203,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved down by 2,000 to 210,000. Claims fell by 3,000 in Michigan and 2,000 in Texas, but rose 2,000 in Indiana. This is the lowest level of jobless claims since 1969.
  • Private-sector employment rose by 163,000 in August versus expectations of a 200,000 gain. Job growth in the private sector was held back by education and health, leisure and hospitality, and construction.
  • The ISM manufacturing index increased to 61.3 in August from 58.1 in July versus expectations for a reading of 57.6. This is the highest level since May of 2004.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing index rose 2.8 points to 58.5 versus expectations of a 56.8 reading. The ISM reports indicate a higher pace of growth.
  • The trade deficit rose to $50.1 billion in July versus expectations of -$50.2 billion.
  • Nonfarm payrolls increased 201,000 in August month-over-month versus expectations of a 190,000 increase. The previous two months were revised lower by a net 50,000.
    • The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% versus expectations of a tick down to 3.8%.
    • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% in August versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. The year-over-year rate increased by 0.2% to 2.9%.


Fact of the Week

  • Amazon has gained nearly $400 billion in market cap this year, on its way to becoming the second trillion dollar company, behind Apple. The $400 billion Amazon has gained year to date is nearly equal to the market caps of Walmart, Costco, and Target combined.

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Mexico/NAFTA, Brexit: Wealth Economic Update Aug. 31, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • nafta-970297784_370The United States and Mexico have struck a preliminary deal on Monday to replace NAFTA. The deal would remain in force for 16 years, with an evaluation every six years, and is expected to strengthen manufacturing in the United States. The deal includes an obligation by auto manufacturers to manufacture at least 75% of an automobile’s value in the United States, an increase from 62.5%. Also included, was a stipulation that 40-45% of auto components be manufactured by employees earning at least $16 an hour. Negotiations are still ongoing between the United States and Canada after a deal was expected by today, however, the two sides are having trouble coming together on Canada’s dairy market, among other things.
  • The United Kingdom and the European Union have extended the deadline from October 18th to the middle of November for wrapping up Brexit terms, signaling to the market that negotiations have been tough. Britain’s exit from the European Union is set for March 29th, and the longer that negotiations continue, the greater the chance that no deal will be made.


Markets

  • Stocks ended the week higher once again. The S&P 500 rose by 0.98% and closed at 2,901. The Dow Jones increased by 0.79% and closed at 25,963. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.85% and the Dow Jones is up 6.66%.
  • Yields rose higher this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.74% and 2.86%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its sharp rebound this week, gaining 1.73% and closing at $69.91 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 16.30%.
  • The spot price of Gold lost 0.50% this week, and closed at $1,199.33 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 7.94%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 213,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved down by 2,000 to 212,000. Claims rose by 2,000 in Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, and fell by 2,000 in California. The pace of layoffs remains very low.
  • Personal income rose by 0.3% in July month-over-month versus expectations of a 0.4% increase.
  • Personal spending increased by 0.4% month-over-month in July, in-line with expectations.
  • The core PCE price index ex-food and energy increased 0.16% month-over-month in July and the year-over-year pace rose 0.06% to 1.98%. These figures were in-line with expectations.
  • Wholesale inventories rose 0.7% in July versus expectations of a 0.2% increase.
  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence increased to 133.4 versus expectations of 126.6. This is the highest level since the year 2000.
  • Second-quarter Real GDP growth was revised up by 0.1% to 4.2% versus expectations of a -0.1% revision to 4.0%.
  • Pending home sales fell by 0.7% in July, below expectations of a 0.3% increase. Sales declined in the South and the West, but increased in the Northeast and the Midwest.


Fact of the Week

  • In a study of five of the largest U.S. Cities (NYC, Chicago, LA, Washington D.C, and Dallas), it was found that it is cheaper for the average American to take Uber for every trip than it is to own a car. Of the 5 cities, only in Dallas was it cheaper to own a car than to take an Uber. (Source: Kleiner Perkins)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

China tariffs, Manafort, Cohen, Hurricane Lane: Wealth Economic Update Aug. 24, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • The amount of tariffs imposed by both the United States and China have now totaled a combined $100 billion each on a variety of products after the planned $16 billion round of United States tariffs kicked in on Chinese products this week and were immediately answered with reciprocity by China. U.S-China trade talks ended on Thursday after making no progress and China stating that they will continue to hit back at the United States as more U.S tariffs are imposed.
  • gavel-827092426_370On Tuesday, Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on eight financial related crimes. Five of the crimes were for tax fraud, two for bank fraud, and one for failing to disclose a foreign bank account. As a result, Paul Manafort faces years in prison. President Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen plead guilty on eight counts of crimes similar to Manaforts and also admitted to paying off an adult film actress and a former Playboy model so that they would not spread the story of their alleged affairs with Trump.
  • Hurricane Lane, a Category 2 slow moving storm, has already dumped over 30 inches of rain on Hawaii’s Big Island as it makes its way north towards Maui and turns west towards Oahu. Police warned all tourists to leave Waikiki Beach and so far, about 1,500 people are in emergency shelters. Hawaii was last hit by a major storm in 1992.


Markets

  • • Stocks rose again this week, reaching record levels last seen in January. The S&P 500 rose by 0.88% and closed at 2,875, an ALL TIME HIGH. The Dow Jones increased by 0.51% and closed at 25,790. Year to date, the S&P is up 8.80% and the Dow Jones is up 5.84%.
  • Yields declined this week and the curve flattened further. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.72% and 2.81%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil rebounded this week, gaining 5.21% and closing at $68.61 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 14.14%.
  • The spot price of Gold gained 1.83% this week, and closed at $1,205.89 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 7.44%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 210,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved down by 2,000 to 214,000. Claims rose by 3,000 in California and fell by 2,000 in Michigan. The pace of layoffs remains very low.
  • Existing home sales fell 0.7% month-over-month in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized figure of 5.34 million units against expectations of a 0.4% increase. Sales were the weakest in the Northeast region.
  • Sales of new single-family homes fell 1.7% in July to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 627,000 units versus consensus expectations of 645,000. The previous three months were revised lower by a net 13,000. July sales fell sharpest in the Northeast region.


Fact of the Week

  • This week marked the longest bull market in history, after the market bottomed on March 9th, 2009. Or did it? The S&P 500 saw drawdowns in 2011 and 2015 in which over 60% of stocks were down at least 20%, with the 2011 instance seeing only a -19.4% in the headline index, not meeting the somewhat arbitrary -20% threshold. Meanwhile, Small Cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 experienced declines of -30.7% and -27.1% in 2011 and 2015 respectively. So is this really the longest bull market in history? (Source: Strategas)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

China tariffs, Turkey, Quarterly reports: Wealth Economic Update Aug. 20, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • Trade tensions with China have eased this week after China stated that they will send a delegation to the United States in late August to resume trade negotiations that have recently fell apart. Since trade negotiations ended a couple of months ago, billions of dollars in tariffs were imposed by the two sides and China’s stock market experienced dramatic losses. This announcement follows a complaint filed by China to the World Trade Organization earlier this week, stating that U.S tariffs on solar products are interfering in the global photovoltaic market and hurting its major solar manufacturers.
  • turkey_coin-843425198_370Crushing hopes of a potential rate hike and restrictive monetary policy action by Turkey to reverse the decline of the Turkish lira, President Erdogan said that he will not raise rates. Erdogan claimed that the lira’s decline was a result of foreign affairs and has nothing to do with Turkey’s economy. Turkey has imposed retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods including tariffs on passenger cars that will rise by 120%.
  • President Trump said on Friday that he has asked the SEC to look into reducing the number of times public companies must report earnings from quarterly to semi-annually. Trump cited business leaders who say it could promote economic growth and longer term investment horizons as investors would be less focused on short term, and more volatile, quarterly results. A move to twice a year reporting would also bring the U.S. in line with European public companies and would reverse the quarterly mandate that the SEC has imposed since 1970.


Markets

  • Stocks rose this week on hopes that trade tensions between the U.S. and China are easing. The S&P 500 rose by 0.66% and closed at 2,850. The Dow Jones climbed by 1.48% and closed at 25,669. Year to date, the S&P is up 7.91% and the Dow Jones is up 5.36%.
  • Yields moved marginally lower this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.74% and 2.86%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its slide this week, losing 2.57% and closing at $65.89 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 9.62%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell 2.18% this week, and closed at $1,184.17 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 9.11%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 212,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved up by 1,000 to 216,000. Claims did not rise or fall by more than 1,000 in any single state. The pace of layoffs remains very low.
  • Housing starts rose by 0.9% in July to 1,168k versus consensus expectations for a 7.4% increase to 1,260k.
  • Building permits rose by 1.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1,311k in July which was in line with expectations.
  • Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in July versus expectations of a 0.1% increase. The increase was driven by gas station sales and auto sales.
    • Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.6% versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. The increase was driven by clothing and accessory stores and department stores.
  • Industrial production rose by 0.1% in July versus expectations of a 0.3% increase.


Fact of the Week

  • The weekly initial jobless claims figure came in at 212,000 this week. The last time jobless claims were this low was 1970, when total employment was 70 million people, compared to 148 million today. (Source: U.S. Department of Labor)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Iran, California wildfires, Turkey tariffs: Wealth Economic Update Aug. 10, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • The first round of sanctions on Iran by the United States has taken effect which includes a restriction on sales of the U.S Dollar to Iran’s government, trade restrictions on precious metals and industrial metals, and a ban on the purchase of Iranian sovereign debt. These new measures are expected to lead to higher prices on almost everything for Iranians. On November 5th, more severe sanctions will take effect if Iran fails to comply with U.S orders. These measures will entail an obstruction of Iran’s oil exports and tough sanctions on shipping.
  • wildfires-157384116California’s largest-ever wildfire has grown to the size of Los Angeles as dry weather, high winds, and location have made it very difficult to contain. President Trump has declared a “major disaster” in California, ordering federal funding to assist in containing the fire. The fire that currently spans over 470 square miles has burned through 283,800 acres is not expected to be fully contained by firefighters until September.
  • President Trump announced that the United States will double the tariff rate on steel and aluminum imported from Turkey, sending the Turkish lira down 20% against the U.S Dollar. This sparked a global market selloff as Turkey is in debt to many different banks. President Erdogan told Turks to sell all U.S Dollars that they own in an attempt to stabilize the plummeting Turkish currency.


Markets

  • Stocks pared their gains at the end of this week closing lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.18% and closed at 2,833. The Dow Jones declined by 0.44% and closed at 25,313. Year to date, the S&P is up 7.16% and the Dow Jones is up 3.79%.
  • Yields were volatile this week, but also ended the week lower as investors piled into bonds. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.75% and 2.87%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its slide this week, losing 1.11% and closing at $67.73 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 14.66%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell 0.27% this week, and closed at $1,211.67 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 6.99%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 213,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims moved down by 1,000 to 214,000. Jobless claims rose by 3,000 in California and fell by 4,000 in Kentucky. The pace of layoffs remains very low.
  • The producer price index (PPI) was flat in July versus expectations of a 0.2% increase reflecting lower food and energy prices as well as lower retail margins.
    • The producer price index ex-food and energy rose 0.1% in July versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
  • Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in June versus expectations of no change.
  • The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.17% month-over-month in July and the year-over-year rate rose 0.1% to 2.4%, the fastest pace in six months. Consensus expectations were for 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year.
    • Core CPI rose 0.24% month-over-month and 2.35% year-over-year versus expectations of 0.2% and 2.3% respectively.


Fact of the Week

  • The number of US homeowners grew 1.8 million in the 12 months ending 6/30/18. That is double the 0.9 million total homeowners added in the decade ending 6/30/17. (Source: Census Bureau)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.