Europe COVID, Wildfires: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Sept. 25, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1206774789_370Fears of another lockdown grips Great Britain amid record levels of new daily cases of coronavirus. Similar to March and April, the U.K. is seeing a run on supermarkets which led to large grocery chain Tesco to place limits on customers to 3 items each of flour, dried pasta, toilet paper, baby wipes, and anti-bacterial wipes. Surging new daily cases of coronavirus and hospitalizations are sweeping across Europe with Spain, France, and Poland all experiencing similar situations to the U.K. This morning, Madrid imposed a local lockdown of more than 1 million people following Marseille’s decision to close bars and restaurants earlier in the week. Poland is expected to announce new restrictions next week as a result of rising new daily cases and hospitalizations. New York City announced that health inspectors will enter private schools in Brooklyn and Queens to ensure that personnel are complying with mask and social distancing requirements after both areas have experienced outbreaks. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced today that Florida will move to “Phase 3”, which involves lifting all restrictions on bars and restaurants that were limited to 50% capacity. The new “Phase 3” stage also prevents local governments from closing businesses and enforcing social distancing without an economic and health justification.
  • In California, over 8,000 wildfires have burned over 3.6 million acres throughout the state so far this year and there are currently roughly 17,500 firefighters battling 25 major wildfires. Since August 15th, 26 people have died as a result of the wildfires and about 7,000 structures have been destroyed. Red flag warnings are in effect from Saturday through Monday as temperatures of over 100 degrees are expected in some areas along with gusty winds, increasing the risk of wildfires. Five of the wildfires currently burning in California are among the list of the largest wildfires in state history. The August Complex is the largest wildfire, and is about 45% contained and responsible for burning around 860,000 acres.

Markets

  • Markets continued trending lower this week. The S&P 500 fell -0.61% and closed at 3,298. The Dow Jones dropped -1.75% and closed at 27,175. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 3.53% and the Dow Jones is down -3.07%.
  • Interests rates fell this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.26% and 0.65%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil fell this week. Prices fell -2.98% and closed at $40.09 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -34.34%.
  • The spot price of Gold dropped -4.53% and closed at $1,862.56 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 22.76%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 870,000 and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 35,000 to 878,000. Claims fell by 6,000 in Michigan, 5,000 in Illinois, and by 4,000 in Florida. Claims rose by 9,000 in New York, 6,000 in Georgia, and by 4,000 in Massachusetts.
  • Existing home sales rose by 2.4% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized rate of 6.0 million units, in-line with expectations
  • The FHFA house price index rose by 1.0% versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%
  • Sales of new single-family homes rose by 4.8% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized rate of 1.01 million versus expectations for a decline of -1.2%
  • New orders for durable goods rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 1.5%
  • Durable goods ex-transports rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%
  • Core capital goods orders rose by 1.8% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%
  • Core capital goods shipments rose by 1.5% versus expectations for an increase of 0.8%

Fact of the Week

  • After adjusting numerical data from the past for the impact of inflation, the median household income in 2019 ($68,703) is the highest ever recorded in the USA and is the 4th consecutive year (2016-2019) that produced an all-time inflation-adjusted record. Before 2016, the peak for median household income was $62,641 set in 1999 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

TikTok, Federal Reserve: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Sept. 18, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • This morning, a Reuters report confirmed that the U.S. Department of Commerce will take action to prevent future downloads of the popular application TikTok if a deal isn’t made by Sunday evening. Additionally, Chinese application WeChat will be shut down in the United States by Sunday if a deal is not made by then according to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Talks between TikTok and a number of U.S. companies have been ongoing, however, China has indicated that they do not want TikTok’s content-recommendation algorithm not be transferred to the United States as part of any deal. The Department of Commerce stated that “The Chinese Communist Party CCP has demonstrated the means and motives to use these apps to threaten the national security, foreign policy, and the economy of the U.S.”. The actions that have been threatened are only to prevent downloads and updates of the applications, and not an outright ban of use. The administration stated that TikTok would be banned in the United States if no deal is reached by November 12th, leaving more time for negotiations.
  • Federal Chairman Jerome Powell stated at this week’s FOMC meeting that “over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.” The purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve has been done at a pace of $80 billion and $40 billion a month respectively. Also, the Federal Reserve is forecasting the fed funds rate to remain at 0% through 2023.

Markets

  • Markets moved lower this week. The S&P 500 fell -0.61% and closed at 3,319. The Dow Jones inched lower by -0.01% and closed at 27,657. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 4.16% and the Dow Jones is down -1.35%.
  • Interests rates rose slightly this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.28% and 0.69%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil fell surged week. Prices rose 9.64% and closed at $40.93 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -32.97%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.65% and closed at $1,810.42 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 19.32%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by slightly less than expected to 860,000 and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 61,000 to 912,000. Claims fell by 15,000 in Texas, 9,000 in Louisiana, and by 8,000 in Georgia. Claims rose by 3,000 in Indiana, 3,000 in Kansas, and by 3,000 in Nevada.
  • The level of housing starts fell by -5.1% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized rate of 1,416,000 versus expectations for a decline of -0.6%
  • Building permits fell by -0.9% versus expectations for a 2.0% increase
  • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell by 2.2 points to 15.0, in-line with expectations
  • Import prices rose by 0.9% versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%
  • Import prices ex-petroleum rose by 0.7% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Industrial production rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%
  • Retail sales rose by 0.6% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%
  • Retail sales core/control fell -0.1% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Business inventories rose by 0.1%, in-line with expectations
  • The current account balance came in at -$170.5 billion for the second quarter versus expectations for a reading of -160.0 billion
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment rose by 4.8 points to 78.9 in the preliminary report versus expectations for a reading of 75.0

Fact of the Week

  • The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on 3/11/20. In the 6 months from 3/11/20 through last Friday 9/11/20, the S&P 500 has gained +23.0% (total return) (source: BTN Research).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

NFL fans, Brexit, COVID Vaccine: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Sept. 11, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1227588054_370The NFL regular season kicked off last night, with the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs beating the Houston Texans 34-20. About 17,000 fans attended the kickoff of the 2020 season at Arrowhead Stadium, which is one of only two venues that will be allowing any fans at all this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars will also be allowing some fans a chance to watch the opener live on Sunday, limiting capacity at 25%.
  • The EU and the U.K. are holding emergency talks after the latter published its Internal Market Bill, which would undercut parts of the Withdrawal Agreement agreed to in January. The news could also damage trade talks as both sides work to secure a new deal. Without an agreement, nearly $1T in trade could be thrown into chaos at the beginning of the year, but some say it may be part of the negotiating strategy. Adding to the turmoil, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said any potential U.S.-U.K. trade deal would not pass Congress if Britain undermines the Good Friday peace agreement.
  • On Tuesday, drug maker Astrozeneca paused clinical trials of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, with a participant in a U.K. study experiencing an unexplained illness. British health minister Matt Hancock explained that the procedure is “not necessarily” a setback and it “depends on what they find when they do the investigation.” AstraZeneca confirmed that the pause “is a routine action” and it was trying to expedite the review to “minimize any potential impact on the trial timeline.”

Markets

  • Markets stumbled this week. The S&P 500 fell -2.49% and closed at 3,340. The Dow Jones dropped -1.61% and closed at 27,665. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 4.67% and the Dow Jones is down -1.35%.
  • Interests rates fell this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.25% and 0.67%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil fell this week. Prices dropped -5.7% and closed at $37.50 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -38.6%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.52% and closed at $1,933.56 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 28.0%.

Economic Data

  • The core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.39% in August, well above consensus expectations for a two-tenths rise.
  • Wholesale inventories decreased by 0.3% in the final July report, below consensus expectations and the previously-reported 0.1% decline
  • The producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.3% in August, one tenth above consensus expectations.
  • Initial jobless claims were unchanged from an upwardly-revised level and above consensus expectations at 884k in the week ended September 5
  • The ISM non-manufacturing index fell by 1.2 points to 56.9 versus expectations for a reading of 57.0

Fact of the Week

  • Of the 130 FBS college football teams, 76 are playing a fall 2020 season while 54 are not currently scheduled to play at all. In 2019, college football generated over $4 billion in revenue. (Source: NCAA, ESPN)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Coronavirus housing rentals, TikTok deal: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Sept. 4, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1215329461_370As Congress is unable to come close to finding any common ground on another coronavirus related relief package, the CDC announced that they would suspend most rental evictions for people struggling to pay rent through the end of 2020. In order to receive protection, a renter must prove that they have taken “best efforts possible to seek government assistance to make their rental payments” and “declare that they are unable to pay rent due to COVID fiancial hardship” and must prove that they “will likely become homeless or move into congregate housing settings if they are evicted.” Originally, under the CARES act, rental evictions were suspended only for people living in federally-backed rental units and federally-backed single-family homes. The CDC has full authority to enact this policy as they have been tasked with using reasonable efforts to combat the spread of communicable diseases and if people are evicted, they may land in an overcrowded living facililty or homeless shelter, leading to further spread of the coronavirus.
  • Just as a deal seemed imminent for TikTok, China has required the parent company ByteDance to obtain a license before it can sell TikTok’s algorithm to another company. China did not comment on its motivation for the requirement, but one Wall Street analyst made a case that the Chinese company would likely not be sold until after the U.S. election as a result of lengthy regulatory procedures. Three weeks ago, President Trump signed an executive order that would require Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores by September 15th. TikTok, among other Chinese apps, have already been banned in India.

Markets

  • Markets pared their gains this week. The S&P 500 fell -2.27% and closed at 3,427. The Dow Jones dropped -1.73% and closed at 28,133. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 7.32% and the Dow Jones is up 0.27%.
  • Interests rates finished the week mostly unchanged. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.30% and 0.72%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil fell this week. Prices dropped -8.05% and closed at $39.51 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -35.29%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell -1.59% and closed at $1,933.56 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 27.44%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 130,000 to 881,000 and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 17,000 to 994,000. Claims fell by 12,000 in Florida, 6,000 in Georgia, and by 5,000 in Michigan. Claims rose by 41,000 in California.
  • Nonfarm productivity rose by 10.1% versus expectations for an increase of 7.5%
  • Unit labor costs rose by 9.0% versus expectations for an increase of 12.0%
  • The ISM manufacturing index rose by 1.8 points to 56.0 versus expectations for a reading of 54.8
  • The ISM non-manufacturing index fell by 1.2 points to 56.9 versus expectations for a reading of 57.0
  • Factory orders rose by 6.4% versus expectations for an increase of 6.1%
  • Construction spending rose by 0.1% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%
  • Private sector employment in the ADP rose by 428,000 versus expectations for an increase of 1 million
  • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.37 million versus expectations for an increase of 1.35 million
  • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% versus expectations for a flat reading
  • The unemployment rate fell to 8.4% versus expectations for a reading of 9.8%

Fact of the Week

The median sales price of existing homes sold in the United States was $304,100 in July 2020, the first time in US history that the median sales price has exceeded $300,000. The $304,100 median price is also a record on an inflation-adjusted basis, besting the inflation-ajusted $293,096 from July 2006. (source: Nat’l Association of Realtors).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Hurricane Laura, Monetary Policy: O2 Wealth Economic Update, August 28, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1174130246_370Hurricane Laura made landfall in Western Louisiana Thursday morning as a Category 4 storm. The storm, that brought maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, caused catastrophic damage that is estimated to cost billions of dollars. The hurricane left six people dead and caused a hazardous chemical fire at a BioLab plant, however, the damage was not as bad as what was expected. Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards said “It is clear that we did not sustain and suffer the absolute catastrophic damage that we thought was likely based on the forecast that we had last night”. Hurricane Laura was the strongest hurricane to ever hit Louisiana, surpassing Katrina which was a Category 3 storm. This year is expected to be the worst ever for hurricanes, as Laura was the seventh named storm to hit the United States before the end of August, a record.
  • In a historic Jackson Hole speech this week, the Federal Reserve issued an update to its longer-term goals on Monetary Policy. The Fed stated that its policy decision will be affected by its “assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level” instead of “deviations” above or below its maximum level. Also, the Fed announced a more flexible approach to price stability, stating that “following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” Additionally, the Fed stated that it will respond to “risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.” The changes that were made to Monetary Policy will likely lead to low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Markets

  • Markets rose higher every day of the week this week. The S&P 500 surged 3.29% and closed at 3,508, AN ALL-TIME HIGH. The Dow Jones spiked 2.64% and closed at 28,653. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 9.96% and the Dow Jones is up 2.03%.
  • Interests rates moved higher this week and the curve steepened. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.27% and 0.72%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil rose this week. Prices rose 1.51% and closed at $42.98 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -29.61%.
  • The spot price of Gold jumped 1.23% and closed at $1,964.27 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 29.46%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 98,000 to 1 million and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 68,000 to 882,000. Claims fell by 28,000 in Florida, 18,000 in New York, and by 11,000 in Texas. Claims rose by 22,000 in California.
  • Second-quarter real GDP growth was revised up by 1.2% to -31.7%, versus expectations for a reading of -32.5%
  • The core PCE price index rose by 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.5% and the year-over-year rate rose 1.3% versus expectations for an increase of 1.2%
  • Personal income rose by 0.4% versus expectations for a decline of -0.2%
  • Personal spending rose by 1.9% versus expectations for an increase of 1.6%
  • Retail inventories rose by 1.2%, in-line with expectations
  • Wholesale inventories fell by -0.1% versus expectations for a decline of -0.9%
  • The FHFA house price index increased by 0.9% versus expectations for a decline of -0.2% and the year-over-year rate rose by 5.7%
  • Sales of new single-family homes rose by 13.9% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 901,000 units versus expectations for 790,000 units
  • Pending home sales rose by 5.9% versus expectations for an increase of 2.0%
  • New orders for durable goods increased by 11.2% versus expectations for an increase of 4.8%
  • Durable goods orders ex-transports rose by 2.4% versus expectations for an increase of 2.0%
  • Core capital goods orders rose by 1.9% versus expectations for an increase of 1.7%
  • Core capital goods shipments rose by 2.4% versus expectations for an increase of 1.8%
  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell by 6.9 points to 84.8 versus expectations for a reading of 93.0
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment rose by 1.3 points to 74.1 versus expectations for a reading of 72.8

Fact of the Week

  • Apple surpassed $2 trillion market cap last week, becoming the first company to be valued at $2 trillion. Apple became the most valuable publicly traded company on July 31st, when it passed oil giant Saudi Aramco. Apple was also the first company to pass $1 trillion back in 2018 (Source: CNBC).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

2 Tropical Storms, COVID: O2 Wealth Economic Update, August 21, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • weather-1180882223Two tropical depressions are being watched closely as computer models show a high probability of one making landfall in Texas and one making landfall in Florida on Monday. University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy stated that “We could actually have Laura and Marco sharing the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and both making U.S. landfalls on Monday”. The National Hurricane center is forecasting that both tropical systems will develop into mild hurricanes. If computer models and forecasts are correct, it would mark the first time in history that two hurricanes move through the Gulf of Mexico.
  • The latest U.S. COVID-19 data updates suggest that the second wave of the virus, particularly in the Sun Belt region, is subsiding. California and Florida saw a sharp decline in hospitalizations yesterday with Florida’s positivity rate coming in at under 10% for the second day in a row. Robert Redfield, head of the CDC, stated that infections in the southern-states are slowing and that the deaths should start to fall over the next week. Meanwhile, Notre Dame and the Univeristy of Pittsburgh are among several schools that have announced that effective immediately, all in-person classes will be suspended after coronavirus outbreaks at the campuses.

Markets

  • Markets continued to rally this week. The S&P 500 rose 0.77% and closed at 3,397. The Dow Jones rose 0.09% and closed at 27,930. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 6.46% and the Dow Jones is down -0.59%.
  • Interests rates moved lower this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.27% and 0.63%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil fell this week. Prices fell -0.14% and closed at $42.25 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -30.81%.
  • The spot price of Gold dropped -0.31% and closed at $1,939.09 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 27.81%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims increased by 135,000 to 1.1 million and the four-week moving average of claims increased by 51,000 to 942,000 million. Claims rose by18,000 in New York, 16,000 in California, and by 15,000 in Texas. Claims fell by 5,000 in Michigan.
  • The level of housing starts rose by 22.6% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 1.496 million versus expectations for an increase of 5.0%
  • Building permits rose by 18.8% versus expectations for an increase of 5.4%
  • Existing home sales rose by 24.7% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 5.86 million units versus expectations for an increase of 14.6%

Fact of the Week

  • Thursday marked 100 days since the March 23rd lows we saw in the market. The last 100 days have been the best performing 100 day period in market history, with the S&P 500 returning 50.8% over the period. The previous best was the 100 day period ending 7/30/2009, when the market returned 45.9% (Source: Strategas Research Partners)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Coronavirus, Unemployment Benefits: O2 Wealth Economic Update, July 31, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • virus-1210596217_370New cases of the coronavirus were reported in China this week, with the mainland reporting 105 new cases on Thursday and 123 new cases on Friday. Hong Kong’s chief executive Carrie Lam announced yesterday that fall elections originally scheduled for September 6th would be postponed as the third wave is resulting in record new daily case figures. United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered an extension of the partial lockdown throughout northern Great Britain for at least two weeks as Europe continues to see rising daily cases. The remainder of the MLB season has been called into question after nearly 20 Miami Marlins players and staff, at least two Phillies staff, and a number of Cardinals players tested positive for coronavirus, resulting in numerous cancelations.
  • As the enhanced unemployment benefits are set to expire today, pressure is mounting in Washington for an agreement on a new stimulus bill to replace American’s lost income. Currently, the Republicans stimulus plan is valued at approximately $1 trillion while the Democrats plan is valued at about $3.5 trillion. Both sides are in favor of moratorium evictions and an additional direct stimulus payment to all Americans, however, Republicans want to cut the unemployment benefits to a portion of lost wages while Democrats are seeking to keep it unchanged. Other issues that remain unresolved are funds for states and local governments and liability protections. Negotiations are set to continue throughout the weekend with the hopes that a deal will be struck by Sunday evening.

Markets

  • Markets were mostly higher this week. The S&P 500 surged 1.75% and closed at 3,271. The Dow Jones lost -0.15% and closed at 26,428. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 2.38% and the Dow Jones is down -6.14%.
  • Interests rates fell lower this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.22% and 0.54%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil rose fell week. Prices declined -2.18% and closed at $40.39 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -33.85%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 3.82% and closed at $1,974.75 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 30.15%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 1.434 million and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 171,000 to 1.206 million. Claims fell by 25,000 in California, 13,000 in Florida, 11,000 in Louisiana, and by 7,000 in Texas. Claims rose by 17,000 in New York, 16,000 in Virginia, 8,000 in Nevada, and by 7,000 in Michigan.
  • Real GDP fell by -32.9% in the second quarter versus expectations for a decline of           -34.5%
  • Personal consumption fell by -34.6% versus expectations for a decline of -34.5%
  • The Core PCE inflation index fell by 1.1% versus expectations for a decline of 0.9%
  • The PCE price index rose by 0.4%, in-line with expectations and the year-over-year rate rose 0.8% versus expectations for an increase of 0.9%
  • The Core PCE price index rose by 0.2%, in-line with expectations and the year-over-year rate rose by 1.0%, in-line with expectations
  • New orders for durable goods rose by 7.3% versus expectations for an increase of 6.9%
  • Durable goods orders ex-transports rose by 3.3% versus expectations for an increase of 3.6%
  • Core capital goods orders rose by 3.3% versus expectations for an increase of 2.2%
  • Core capital goods shipments rose by 3.4% versus expectations for an increase of 2.4%
  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell by 5.7 points to 92.6 versus expectations for a reading of 95.0
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell by 0.7 points to 72.5 versus expectations for a reading of 72.9
  • Retail inventories fell by -2.6% versus expectations for a decline of -2.7%
  • Wholesale inventories fell by -2.0% versus expectations for a decline of -0.5%
  • Pending home sales rose by 16.6% versus expectations for an increase of 15.0%
  • Personal income fell by -1.1% versus expectations for a decline of -0.6%
  • Personal spending rose by 5.6% versus expectations for an increase of 5.2%

Fact of the Week

In both Florida and Texas, general sales tax revenue makes up at least 60% of their total tax revenue collected, the highest percentages in the nation. General sales tax revenue makes up just 12% of Vermont’s total tax revenue. Neither Florida nor Texas has a state income tax (source: Census Bureau).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Coronavirus, China: O2 Wealth Economic Update, July 24, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1212555850The Sun Belt region of the United States continues to battle a high number of daily new cases of COVID-19, contributing largely to the country’s third straight day of over 1,000 deaths. The approximate daily currently hospitalized figure of about 60,000 has now reached levels last seen in late April. The state of Florida, particularly the Miami-Dade area, remains the most severely affected, with a 19.2% positivity rate versus the state positivity rate of 13.3%. President Trump announced yesterday that the Republican convention scheduled to be held in Jacksonville Florida next month will be canceled, citing the coronavirus “flare up”. During a House committee hearing this week, Moderna, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck all pointed out their plans to have a vaccine by 2021, with AstraZeneca stating that they would have an emergency based vaccine available by the end of this year.
  • On Tuesday night in Houston, police and fire fighters responded to a reported fire at the Chinese Consulate which was eventually discovered to be the result of barrels filled with burning documents. The Trump administration quickly responded by closing the consulate and ordering Chinese personnel to leave within 72 hours, angering China who is now accusing the United States of breaking down the “friendship bridge” that bands together the two countries. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave a speech yesterday, in which he called for engagement and empowerment of Chinese people, attempting to rally the people against the Communist Party of China. In fulfilling their promised retaliation, China announced Friday morning that it would close the American consulate in Chengdu, the capital of the Sichaun Province. The statement from the White House this morning states that China should “cease these malign actions rather than engage in tit-for-tat retaliation.”

Markets

  • Markets declined slightly this week. The S&P 500 fell -0.27% and closed at 3,216. The Dow Jones lost -0.74% and closed at 26,470. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 0.61% and the Dow Jones is down -6.00%.
  • Interests rates fell slightly again. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.27% and 0.58%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil rose this week. Prices rose 1.15% and closed at $41.22 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -32.49%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 5.05% and closed at $1,901.80 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 25.34%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 109,000 to 1.4 million and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 17,000 to 1.36 million. Claims fell by 13,000 in Florida, 9,000 in Texas, and by 6,000 in Indiana. Claims rose by 45,000 in New York, 16,000 in Virginia, and by 11,000 in Tennessee.
  • Existing home sales rose 20.7% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 4.72 million units versus expectations for an increase of 21.4%. Sales were led by the West and South regions.
  • The FHFA house price index fell by -0.3% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%
  • Sales of new single-family homes rose by 13.8% to a seasonally-adjusted-annualized-rate of 776,000 units versus expectations for 700,000 units.

Fact of the Week

  • 57% of colleges anticipate they will offer “in-person” class instruction for the upcoming 2020-21 school year, just 9% will offer only online class instruction, while 29% of schools will provide a combination of “in-person” and online class instruction. The remaining 5% of schools have yet to decide as of Friday 7/10/20 (source: Chronicle of Higher Education).

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Coronavirus uptick: O2 Wealth Economic Update, July 17, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • iStock-1218500852Due to the uptick in coronavirus cases, a growing number of U.S. states and localities have mandated the use of masks and face coverings while in public. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp is suing Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms over the city’s mask mandate – which is punishable by a fine or up to six months in jail – claiming the measure is more restrictive than a state order that “strongly encourages face coverings” but does not require them. On the corporate side of things, Walmart, Kroger and Target announced Wednesday that they would will require customers to put on a mask or face covering inside stores.
  • “What we really need are drugs that, when given early, can prevent a symptomatic person from requiring hospitalization or very dramatically diminish the time that they’re symptomatic,” Dr. Anthony Fauci told Mark Zuckerberg during a Facebook Live interview. Looking for a treatment, he expects results for a clinical trial on monoclonal antibodies by late summer or early fall. The laboratory-produced proteins – described as “precise bullets” that can be developed from antibodies from other people who’ve been infected by COVID-19 – are hoped to be used to treat sick coronavirus patients as well as for prophylaxis.

Markets

  • Markets rose again this week. The S&P 500 jumped 1.27% and closed at 3,224. The Dow Jones rose 2.32% and closed at 26,671. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 0.88% and the Dow Jones is down -5.3%.
  • Interests rates were fell slightly from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.28% and 0.62%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil inched higher this week. Prices rose 0.12% and closed at $40.60 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -33.51%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.69% and closed at $1,811.04 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 19.36%.

Economic Data

  • Business inventories declined by 2.3% in May
  • Retail sales increased 7.5% month over month in June.
  • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell by 3.4 points, better than concensus estimates for a larger decline.
  • Initial Jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 1.3 million in the week of July 11.
  • Industrial production increase by 5.4% in June, mostly lead by a large increase in automobile manufacturing.
  • CPI rose by 0.24% month over month in June.

Fact of the Week

  • Then market cap weighted performance of the top 5 stocks in the S&P500 (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google) has been +32% year to date. The performance of the remaining 495 stocks in the index has been -7.7% year to date. (Source: Strategas)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Coronavirus, Jobs Gains: O2 Wealth Economic Update, July 3, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • The United States is setting records for new confirmed daily coronavirus cases heading into Independence Day weekend as dozens of states have either delayed reopening plans or have taken steps back in the process. After reporting a record 509 new cases yesterday, Washington State Governor Jay Inslee announced that he would pause reopening in the state for 2 weeks and directed all businesses to require face coverings for employees and customers. The announcement from the Washington Governor comes after Texas issued a similar order requiring face coverings as Houston hospitals were forced to move ICU patients as far as 50 miles away as a result of overcapacity. The state of Arizona announced this morning that 91% of its ICU beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients and only 196 beds remain available as 4,433 new cases were reported yesterday in the state. The United Kingdom released travel guidelines easing restrictions on travelers from a handful of countries excluding the United States, continuing to require Americans to quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival.
  • In the past two months, the United States has added back a shocking 7.5 million of the 20.7 million lost jobs in April. About 40% of the job gains were in the leisure and hospitality sector as most restaurants and bars have reopened. New jobs in the retail trade industry accounted for about 10% of the total job gains in the past two months as clothing stores and general merchandise stores also reopened. Education and health services jobs also increased substantially, as many dentists, physicians, and private educators went back to work. The rate of job growth in the past two months have smashed expectations as the unemployment rate was expected to rise to 19.1% in May but instead fell to 13.3% while the unemployment rate in June fell to 11.1% versus 12.5% expected.

Markets

  • Markets surged higher in the holiday shortened trading week. The S&P 500 jumped 4.07% and closed at 3,130. The Dow Jones spiked 3.29% and closed at 25,827. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is down -2.13% and the Dow Jones is down -8.33%.
  • The yield curve steepened this week as the level of rates remained relatively unchanged. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.30% and 0.67%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude oil rose this week. Prices rose 4.68% and closed at $40.29 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -34.01%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.23% and closed at $1,775.35 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 17.01%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 55,000 to 1.4 million and the four-week moving average of claims fell by 1118,000 to 1.5 million. Claims fell by 47,000 in Oklahoma, 8,000 in New York, 3,000 in California, and by 3,000 in Florida. Claims increased by 6,000 in Wisconsin and by 5,000 in Texas.
  •  Nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June versus expectations for an increase of 3.2 million
  • Private sector employment in the ADP rose by 2.4 million versus expectations for an increase of 2.9 million
  • The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% versus expectations for a reading of 12.5%
  •  Average hourly earnings fell -1.2% versus expectations for a decline of -0.8% and the year-over-year rate rose 5.0%
  • Factory orders increased by 8.0% versus expectations for an increase of 8.6%
  • Pending home sales rose by 44.3% versus expectations for an increase of 19.3%
  • The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose by 0.3% versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%
  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence rose by 12.2 points to 98.1 versus expectations for a reading of 91.5
  • The ISM manufacturing index rose by 9.5 points to 52.6 versus expectations for a reading of 49.8
  • Construction spending fell by -2.1% versus expectations for an increase of 1.0%

Fact of the Week

  • In 2000, Bobby Bonilla was let go from the New York Mets. Instead of receiving the $5.9 million he was due in his contract, the two parties agreed to defer payment until 2011, when the Mets would begin paying Bonilla $1.19 million every July 1st, through 2035. To this day, he has received $11.9 million dollars from the Mets. If he had instead taken the $5.9 million and invested it into the S&P500 on January 1st 2000, he would have $12.5 million. (Source: ESPN, Bloomberg)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.