Dow tops 30k; Black Friday, Cyber Monday: O2 Wealth Economic Update, Nov. 27, 2020

U.S. and World News

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit and closed above 30,000 on Tuesday for the first time since its inception in 1896. Vaccine sentiment reignited the recovery rally on hope that the economy will soon get back to normal, and was topped off by the GSA clearing the way for a presidential transition process and reports that Janet Yellen could head up the Treasury.
  • iStock-624893634_370The biggest shopping weekend of the year is here, with bargain hunters across the U.S. planning to spend the next few days searching for discounts in stores and online despite the coronavirus pandemic. With rising wages and increasing consumer confidence, U.S. holiday sales are expected to grow between 3.6% and 5.2%, compared with the 4% growth last year, while online sales are seen rising 20% to 30%, according to the National Retail Federation.

Markets

  • Markets gained this week. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% and closed at 3,638. The Dow Jones gained 2.23% and closed at 29,910. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 14.52% and the Dow Jones is up 7.04%.
  • Yields rose slightly this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 0.37% and 0.84, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude rose this week. Prices rose 7% and closed at $45.39 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down -25.66%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell by -4.49% and closed at $1,786.99 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 17.78%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims increased to 778k for the week ended November 21, against expectations for a decline, and the 4-week moving average fell by 4k to 749k.
  • Third-quarter real GDP growth was unrevised at +33.1%, in line with consensus expectations.
  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell by 5.3 points to 96.1 in November, below expectations for a smaller decrease.
  • The FHFA house price index increased by 1.7% in September, above consensus expectations for a more modest increase.

Fact of the Week

  • It took less than four years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to climb from 20,000 to 30,000 (Jan 2017 – Nov 2020). It took 18 years (1999-2017) for the index to reach 20,000 from 10,000, and 103 years (1896-1999) to reach 10,000 from its original inception (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

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