Election 2020: O2 Wealth Economic Special Update, Nov. 4, 2020

iStock-1217964301Despite early polling pointing to a decisive victory for Joe Biden and the Democrats gaining control of the Senate in what would be a Blue Wave, the actual votes indicate a much different result than was anticipated, creating somewhat of a Purple Haze. The race for President remains undecided this morning with several states still counting ballots, including record numbers of mail-in and absentee ballots, and the process could last for days. Control of the Senate also remains unresolved but appears to be leaning toward a retention of the majority by Republicans. This is not a terribly surprising scenario. We saw in 2016 the inherent flaws in polling data that skew toward Democratic candidates and thought these races would be much closer than the polls indicated and positioned our portfolios accordingly.

Despite the election uncertainty, and the Doomsday fears of many investors, stock market reaction has largely been positive with futures pointing toward a strong open and technology stocks leading. Bond yields have also dropped overnight as the complexion of the races have shifted. These market actions point to the anticipation of a divided government, under which expectations for the size of further stimulus are lowered.

This is clearly a fluid situation and we will continue to monitor closely as it develops over the coming hours and days. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to your Relationship Manager or Investment Officer if you have any questions.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves CFA® – (630) 801-2217 smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava CFA®, CFP® – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

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