Shutdown, Wall: Wealth Economic Update Jan. 25, 2019

U.S. and World News

  • laguardia-898593448President Trump reached a deal with congress today to open and fund the government until February 15th. The hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal workers during the 34 day partial government shutdown are expected to receive back pay. The bill that was agreed upon does not include $5.7 billion for a border wall. President Trump stated that if there is no agreement on border wall funding by February 15th, either the government will shut down again, or he will take executive action to provide funds. This announcement today comes after two bills failed to pass the senate yesterday, and the unscheduled absences of Transportations Security Agents caused a brief ground stop a LaGuardia airport in New York this morning.


Markets

  • Stocks were relatively unchanged from last week, in another volatile week. The S&P 500 declined 0.21% and closed at 2,665. The Dow Jones increased 0.13% and closed at 24,737. Year to date, the S&P is up 6.40% and the Dow Jones is up 6.15%.
  • Yields retreated slightly from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.60% and 2.76%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued trending higher this week. Prices rose 1.02% and closed at $53.55 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 17.93%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 1.80% this week and closed at $1,305.25 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 1.92%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 199,000 for the week, the lowest level since 1969. The four-week moving average of claims decreased by 6,000 to 215,000. Claims fell by 5,000 in Kentucky and by 4,000 in California and Michigan.
  • Existing home sales fell by 6.4% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.99 million units versus expectations for a decline of 1.5%. Sales in the Midwest region led the decline.

Fact of the Week

  • The average price of gasoline nationwide on 1/18/19 (last Friday) was $2.24. 50 years ago, the average price of gasoline was 35 cents. When adjusted for 50 years of inflation, the 35 cent price is equal to $2.48 in 2019 dollars. (Source: AAA, Department of Labor)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 –  rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

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National Data Privacy Day: Minimizing Your Risks

Robert M. Duplessis, CRISC, CISM, CBVM
Senior Vice President/Information Security Officer

Every January 28, security experts observe National Data Privacy Day, though the reason is far from celebratory. Instead, the day is devoted to raising awareness about the risks of sharing data in daily life. Over the years that awareness has evolved from warnings that using birthdays as PINs is a bit risky to the new reality that the privacy of data—everyone’s data—is under constant attack.

Hacker attacks on computers now launch at a rate of every 39 seconds*. Breaches that result in records being stolen are occurring at a rate of 158,727 per hour*! Worse, the pools of information available to be hacked are increasing, thanks to the growth of the internet of things (IoT).

The New Normal: Data in Motion
You may actively use settings to restrict public access to your social media accounts and practice good self-policing of your personal data. However, every time you shop for books or boots online, ask your voice-activated device a trivia question, stream videos or even send your DNA to a lab to learn about your ancestry, you are giving up valuable data about yourself. And, if you are like most people, you do so without considering the security risks.

IoT attacks were up 600% in 2017.

7 Ways to Play Defense
While it may seem as if society in general has already lost the war on privacy, that doesn’t mean you can’t defend yourself against personal loss. There are tools you can use and actions you can take to keep your data from being turned against you. Here are a few of these.

  1. Know how those you deal with treat your information. Read our privacy policy, along with the policies of any site or service you access, to make sure they are protective of their customers’ data before you give them yours.
  2. Conduct an annual audit of your data. Determine where it is and what each organization you deal with knows about you. Uninstall any old apps—the older they are and the less frequently they are updated, the more vulnerable they are to hacking.More than 75% of the health care industry was infected with malware last year.
  3. Monitor your credit reports. The FDIC recommends visiting www.annualcreditreport.com* or calling 877-322-8228 to acquire a free credit report every 12 months from each of the three major credit bureaus. These reports function as early detection systems if someone is trying to borrow your identity.
  4. Be an early filer. Because many security breaches in the retail and health care industries have compromised social security numbers, file your tax return as early as possible, especially if you anticipate a refund. Fraudulent filings delay refunds for months while the IRS straightens things out.Three industries were responsible for 95% of the records stolen in 2016.
  5. Don’t trust, before you verify. Before giving up any information online through an email or text, verify that the person or company asking for it is legit. Hover over the address line to see where the email is really coming from. Verify any phone numbers through an independent online search before calling.71% of cyber attacks begin with phishing emails.
  6. Use tools designed to keep your information safe. Our Trusteer Rapport is security software that protects your online banking communications from being stolen. It works in addition to any antivirus or firewalls and is designed to catch fraud immediately. We also offer Security Manager, an authentication product for businesses or personal customers that generates passcodes via text and works in conjunction with your current security features.Small businesses were the target of 43% of cyber attacks.
  7. Secure you debit card. When you misplace your debit card, use our SecurLOCK™ Equip Mobile App to turn your debit card on and off and monitor spending.

Working Hard to Keep You Safe
It’s unfortunate that every time you touch a screen or pay by phone, credit or debit card you give up some personal information. We are committed to helping you protect your most valued possessions.

Whenever you have any doubts about your bank accounts, visit our FAQ section. Also, feel free to contact us online or call 877-866-0202. We are always happy to talk through your concerns, privately.

  1. Sobers, Rob. “60 Must-Know Cybersecurity Statistics for 2019.” Varonis. Web. January 2, 2019. <https://www.varonis.com/blog/cybersecurity-statistics/*>
  2. “13 Alarming Cyber Security Facts and Stats.” Cybint. Web. December 3, 2018. <https://www.cybintsolutions.com/cyber-security-facts-stats/*>
  3. “13 Alarming Cyber Security Facts and Stats.”
  4. Sobers, Rob. “60 Must-Know Cybersecurity Statistics for 2019.”
  5. “13 Alarming Cyber Security Facts and Stats.”

*This is an outbound link that will take you away from the WordPress blog. Before you go, we want to let you know that you are accessing a resource that includes data not hosted on our website. This service has been provided for your convenience only. It does not imply that Old Second Bank endorses or sponsors the information you will be viewing. We also cannot guarantee its accuracy or that your privacy will be maintained should you choose to disclose any personal information while on the linked site. Also, please be aware that the products and services offered on third-party sites, including investment and insurance products, are not products of Old Second Bank and may not be insured by the FDIC. Thank you and hope to see you back here soon.

China, Brexit, Shutdown: Wealth Economic Update Jan. 18, 2019

U.S. and World News

  • beijing-482334184_370China’s chief trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, will come to Washington D.C. for the next round of trade talks on January 30-31. The visit comes after some surprisingly negative economic data coming out of China this week that showed sharp contractions in both imports and exports. The poor numbers have led to stimulus measures such as tax cuts by the People’s Bank of China and figure to make it even more pressing for some sort of deal to be struck. The U.S. side isn’t necessarily presenting a unified front however, with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin saying that Washington could ease tariffs on China, while U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer pushed back on this suggestion and continues to take a hardline stance.
  • British Prime Minister Theresa May submitted a Brexit proposal to Parliament this week which was soundly voted down and prompted a no-confidence motion from the opposition Labour Party. While May was able to survive the no-confidence vote, she now has a Monday deadline to set out her Brexit Plan B. She may be forced budge on certain items to get her opponents on her side, such as keeping closer ties to the European Union or postponing Britain’s separation from the economic bloc. However, with less than 70 days remaining until “Brexit Day”, if the two sides do not come together it becomes more likely that Parliament will take control of the Brexit process.
  • The partial government shutdown carries on through its 28th day, extending the record long impasse. Estimates for the cost of the shutdown have been increased from an initial figure of a -0.1% impact on GDP every two weeks it was in force, to -0.1% every week. The January employment report figures to show job growth being slashed by nearly 500,000 and the headline unemployment rate rising to 4.0% if the situation isn’t resolved quickly.


Markets

  • Stocks rose higher again this week, continuing the bounce off of the Christmas Eve lows. The S&P 500 rose 2.90% and closed at 2,670. The Dow Jones increased 3.01% and closed at 24,706. Year to date, the S&P is up 6.63% and the Dow Jones is up 6.02%.
  • Yields were on the rise this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.62% and 2.78%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil rose sharply this week, continuing its recent upward trend. Prices jumped another 4.17% and closed at $53.74 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 18.28%.
  • The spot price of Gold fell 0.63% this week and closed at $1,282.11 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are unchanged.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 213,000 for the week. The four-week moving average of claims decreased by 1,000 to 221,000. Claims fell by 3,000 in New York and by 2,000 in Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

Fact of the Week

  • If calendar year 2018 GDP growth, which is released on 1/30, is reported above 3%, it will break a 12 year streak of “sub 3%” growth (2006-2017). This is the longest such streak in US history, with the next longest “sub 3%” streak taking place in the 4 your period from 1930-1933 during the Great Depression. (Source: Commerce Department)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 –  rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

China, Brexit, Shutdown: Wealth Economic Update Jan. 11, 2019

U.S. and World News

  • The trade negotiation with China shifted to a more positive tone this week after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that the United States and China could reach a deal that “we could live with”. China’s foreign ministry stated that China has “good faith” to work with the United States to reach a deal. Some meaningful progress was made this week during a prolonged meeting that included China’s purchases of U.S. farm and energy products and expanded access to China’s markets. However, negotiations over forced U.S. technology transfer did not improve. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to visit the United States in the near future for further negotiations.
  • British Prime Minister Theresa May finds herself in a tough spot in the days leading up to the January 15th vote on her Brexit deal as a result of lawmakers restricting her tax-varying powers in the event of no agreement. The last vote on a Brexit deal was delayed as there was not enough support and things have failed to improve since. The pressure for a deal to be made grows by the day as the March 29th deadline nears.
  • capitol-621851478With no end in sight, the partial government shutdown now ties the record for longest in American history, on its 21st day. Effects of a lengthened government shutdown are forgone pay from millions of federal employees, delayed business permits and visas, delayed IPO’S, and mergers and acquisitions. Withheld pay from federal employees could potentially impact consumer spending, a significant portion of the United States economy. Fitch’s global head of sovereign ratings stated that the United States triple-A credit rating could be in question because of the inability to pass a budget. The two government parties remain at an impasse over President Trump’s request for border wall funding.


Markets

  • • Stocks rose higher again this week as tensions with China have eased and the Fed provided some calming language regarding policy. The S&P 500 rose 2.58% and closed at 2,596. The Dow Jones increased 2.42% and closed at 23,996. Year to date, the S&P is up 3.63% and the Dow Jones is up 2.93%.
  • Yields rose slightly this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.53% and 2.70%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil rose sharply this week. Prices jumped 6.41% and closed at $51.63 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 13.70%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.13% this week and closed at $1,287.68 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 0.40%.

Economic Data

  •  Initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to 216,000 for the week. The four-week moving average of claims rose by 3,000 to 222,000. Claims fell by 3,000 in California and fell by 2,000 in Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing index fell by 3.1 points to 57.6 versus expectations for a reading of 58.5.
  • The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.06% in December, in-line with expectations. The year-over-year rate rose 1.95% versus expectations of a 1.9% increase.
    • Core CPI rose by 0.21% in December, in-line with expectations. The year-over-year rate rose by 2.21% in December, in-line with expectations.

Fact of the Week

  • Today marks the 21st day of the government shutdown, which ties the shutdown spanning December 16, 1995 to January 6th, 1996 under President Bill Clinton as the longest shut down in history. During the ’95-’96 shutdown, the S&P 500 returned 0.156%. As of the close today, the S&P 500 is up 7.54% since the government shutdown at midnight on December 22. (Source: Bloomberg)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 –  rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

China, Congress, Wall, Budget: Wealth Economic Update Jan. 4, 2019

U.S. and World News

  • great_wall-899508826President Trump said that he had a “very good call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday regarding trade and that “big progress” was being made. Earlier this week, China released disappointing manufacturing data that showed a contracting Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, rather than growing. However, Chinese Services Purchasing Managers Index jumped to a six-month high. This morning, China’s commerce ministry announced that vice-ministerial-level trade discussions will be held with the United States on January 7-8 in Beijing. The meeting is a continuation of an ongoing effort to reach a deal on trade during a 90-day truce period that postponed additional tariffs until March 1st.
  • Democrats had officially taken control of the House on Thursday and have found themselves at an impasse with Congress and President Trump on funding the government, which has now been partially shut down for 14 days. President Trump has stated that he will not sign a bill that does not include $5 billion for a wall along the southern border, something that the Democrats strongly oppose. The Democrats have passed a funding package that would reopen the government and the Department of Homeland Security until February 8th, but would not satisfy the President’s demand. Bipartisan congressional leaders are meeting today at the White House to continue negotiations.


Markets

  • Stocks continued climbing higher in yet another volatile week. The S&P 500 rose 1.90% and closed at 2,532. The Dow Jones increased 1.65% and closed at 23,433. Year to date, the S&P is up 1.03% and the Dow Jones is up 0.50%.
  • Yields fell further this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.50% and 2.67%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil rebounded this week. Prices jumped 6.57% and closed at $48.31 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 6.39%.
  • The spot price of Gold rose 0.42% this week and closed at $1,286.05 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 0.28%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 231,000 for the week. The four-week moving average of claims rose by 1,000 to 219,000. Claims rose by 2,000 in Connecticut and fell by 2,000 in California and North Carolina.
  • Private sector employment rose by 271,000 in December versus expectations for a 180,000 increase.
  • The ISM manufacturing index fell 5.2 points to 54.1 in December versus expectations for a reading of 57.5. This is the largest one-month decline in ten years.
  • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 312,000 in December, far exceeding expectations of 195,000. Prior months were revised up by a net 58,000.
    • The unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.9% due to a higher labor participation rate.
    • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% in December versus expectations for a 0.3% increase and the year-over-year rate rose to 3.2%, a cycle high.

Fact of the Week

  • This weekend’s playoff matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles will be the fourth time the teams have meet in the post season. Previous match-ups include the infamous “Fog Bowl” on New Year’s 1988, and the Eagles hold a 1-2 series advantage over the Bears. The teams will face off at Soldier Field at 3:40pm on Sunday.

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 –  rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.