China, Brazil election: Wealth Economic Update Nov. 3, 2018

U.S. and World News

  • China made progress this week towards making its financial markets more investor friendly. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it will begin increasing liquidity, reduce unnecessary interference in trading, and increase fairness in the markets for investors. President Trump ramped up trade threats if negotiations with Chinese President Xi fail, stating that the U.S. is planning tariffs on the remaining $257 billion in Chinese goods. Reports surfaced early this morning that President Trump had asked U.S. officials to draft a trade agreement with China, however, a few members of the administration later said that an agreement is not imminent.
  • brazil-676361592_370In a controversial victory, right winged presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidential election with 55% of the vote. The Brazilian Real gained 9.7% against the U.S. Dollar and the Bovespa stock index rose 13.5% in the last 30 days as the market predicted a Bolsonaro victory leading up to the election. Brazil has gone through years of corruption scandals, brutal elections and protests, the impeachment of a president, and negative economic growth. Bolsonaro campaigned on restoring discipline and law-and-order, putting an end to the corruption.


Markets

  • Stocks rebounded from correction levels this week as volatility remains elevated. The S&P 500 rose 2.45% and closed at 2,723. The Dow Jones gained 2.36% and closed at 25,271. Year to date, the S&P is up 3.47% and the Dow Jones is up 4.03%.
  • Yields also rebounded dramatically from their lows last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 3.04% and 3.22%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its slide this week, losing a whopping 6.92% and closing at $62.91 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 4.66%.
  • The spot price of Gold ended the week almost unchanged from last week, losing 0.05% and closing at $1,232.94 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 5.36%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 214,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 2,000 to 214,000. Claims fell by 3,000 in California and by 2,000 in Georgia. Jobless claims still remain high in hurricane affected states.
  • The core PCE index (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.15% month-over-month in September and the year-over-year figure came in at 1.97%, in line with expectations.
  • Personal income rose by 0.2% month-over-month in September versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
  • Personal spending rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, in-line with expectations.
  • The Conference Board index of consumer conference rose to 137.9 versus expectations for a reading of 135.9. This is the highest level since 2000.
    Private sector employment rose 227,000 in October versus expectations for a 187,000 increase.
  • Factory orders increased by 0.7% month-over-month in September versus expectations for a 0.5% increase.
  • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 250,000 in October month-over-month versus expectations of a 200,000 increase.
    • The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, in-line with expectations.
    • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month in October and the year-over-year figure rose by 0.3% to 3.1%, a new cycle-high.
    • The trade deficit rose by $700 million to $54 billion in September, versus expectations for a $300 million increase.

Fact of the Week

  • The last time Amazon saw a 20% drawdown in stock price was in February of 2016, when its market cap was $227 Billion. In the period from September 4th to October 30th, Amazon fell nearly 25% and lost $249 Billion in market cap.

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

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