Healthcare, IL “junk” status: Wealth Economic Update June 30, 2017

U.S. and World News

  • healthcare-587952472_360After unveiling their version of healthcare reform legislation, Senate Republican leaders decided to delay a vote until after the July 4th .  This came after the Congressional Budget Office scoring reported that the legislation in its current form would result in 22 million more people being uninsured by 2020.  Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said there was a ‘really good chance’ the bill will eventually pass despite the delay and a number of GOP lawmakers expressing their concerns over the bill.
  • Illinois is facing the possibility of becoming the first U.S. state to have its credit rating downgraded to ‘junk’ status by S&P. State lawmakers have until Friday night’s deadline to agree on a budget, something that hasn’t happened since 2015, before S&P stated that it will lower Illinois’ credit rating for the 4th time in the last year.

Markets

  • Markets ended the week slightly lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.58% and closed at 2,423. The Dow Jones decreased by 0.21% for the week and closed at 21,350. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.31% and the Dow is up 9.30%.
  • Interest rates rose on both the short and long ends this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are now yielding 1.89% and 2.30%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil popped 7.67% this week, closing at $46.31 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices have fallen 13.79%.
  • The spot price of Gold ended the week lower by 1.20%, closing at $1,241.61 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 8.20%.

 Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 from last week, coming in at 244,000. The Labor Department noted no unusual factors affecting the data this week. The four week moving average for claims moved down to 242,000.
  • The Case-Shiller home price index rose by 0.3% in April, below consensus expectations of 0.5%. By city, Detroit (+1.8%) and Seattle (+1.1%) showed the largest increases, while Cleveland (-1.0%) and Boston (-0.7%) showed the largest decreases in prices. Over the last 12 months, home prices as measured by the index have risen 5.7%.
  • The headline PCE index (measure of inflation) declined -0.1% in May, lower than the estimated 0.2% increase. Over the last 12 months, headline PCE inflation has risen 1.4%.
    • Core PCE (excludes food and energy, Fed’s preferred inflation method), rose 0.1% in May, in line with expectations. Over the last 12 months, Core PCE inflation has risen 1.4%.

Fact of the Week

  • Just 54% of over 18,000 adults surveyed in April 2017 own stocks (either directly or indirectly through a mutual fund or exchange traded fund) in their personal accounts or pre-tax retirement accounts. (Source: Gallup)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Joel Binder, SVP – (630) 844-6767 jbinder@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz, VP – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Career Tips for the Class of 2017

Chris Lasse, First Vice President/Human Resource DirectorLasseC_IN097qc

With graduation comes a deluge of well-intended career advice from family, friends…and total strangers. Some of it will transcend the ages, while some may reflect a different time and employment environment. Other advice may simply not be right for you and what you want to accomplish.

As you sort through it all, here are six tips to help you make the most of your first career move and the opportunities that follow. They’re based on what we see as we pour through resumes, interview candidates and make hiring decisions.

  1. Choose passion over money. When you are excited about what you do, you tend to do it well. That passion will eventually lead to a higher paycheck over the long haul. Taking a job that holds little interest but offers a higher salary may seem like the responsible thing to do. However, it can lead to being stuck in a career path you can’t afford to exit. It can also leave you without the skills and experience needed to transition into the profession you aspired to in the first place.
  2. Know the tradeoffs of working for a large or small company. Large companies can be well-oiled recruiting and training machines. Often, however, in exchange for a company that looks good on your resume, you give up some control over the skills you acquire, what you get to do with them, the breadth of experience you gain and the positions open to you. Working for a smaller company can expose you to a wider variety of job duties. Many times, this means gaining exposure to senior-level executives and the work that they perform—things that can be off limits at bigger companies.
  3. Be realistic about the market value of your degree. As an English major, for example, your starting salary might be less than half of that of an engineering graduate. Realize your value as an entry-level candidate—don’t shortchange yourself, but be pragmatic. Factor in the long-term value of building skills and gaining experience. And, if you need a tie-breaker, always take the job with the better boss.
  4. Look beyond the title. Good entry-level jobs help train you for long-term success. For instance, we often have openings for Credit Analysts. These positions are vital to the lending process. More importantly, they can lead to any number of lucrative career paths since they offer employees the chance to build very marketable experience and skills that are currently in short supply. Consider these types of jobs, they are stepping stones to greater responsibility.
  5. Find a way to stand out. The numerous job sites—from Indeed to LinkedIn—make it easy to find and apply for positions. With one click, you and several hundred other new graduates with your same degree and level of experience can go after the same job. Find ways to be different.

When you are one in 400, make sure your resume stands out.

  • Find a way to become an employee referral. This will improve your odds of getting hired more than anything else you do.
  • Check LinkedIn for any possible connection you can make to the recruiter or someone at the hiring company.
  • Edit your resume for each job to include phrases from the posting. If an automatic parsing tool is used, you will be a perfect match. If not, you’ll catch the recruiter’s eye.
  • Craft a unique cover letter for each position to personalize your application.
  • Have a zero-tolerance policy for grammatical and spelling errors.
  1. Be strategic and have a long-term plan. This means thinking about where you want to be in 3–5 years or more. Mapping out your path will help you identify the type of experience you need and the skills you want to acquire. It not only makes you a more committed candidate, but it also keeps you focused and motivated.

Remember, the path you are on is long and likely to take unexpected turns. Our best advice is to use each stop to learn, expand your skills and gain the experience that leads to the next opportunity. We know you’ll do great.

If you are interested in making Old Second Bank your first stop after graduating, click here.

Brexit, Healthcare: Wealth Economic Update June 23, 2017

U.S. and World News

  • brexit-540371754_360A year after the vote for Britain to leave the European Union, Brexit talks have finally begun in Brussels. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will be sitting down with U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis to work through the details of the anticipated two year separation process. Additionally, Prime Minister Theresa May unveiled an offer to allow at least 3 million EU citizens living in the U.K. to stay after Brexit, an offer that was welcomed by other European heads of state, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
  • Senate Republicans released their version of the healthcare reform legislation this week, giving the public their first chance to see what their iteration looks like. The Senate version is similar to the House bill in that both would radically overhaul Medicaid, remove the individual and employer mandates as well as eliminate taxes tied to Obamacare. There are also some differences, for instance, the Senate version would provide subsidies based on income, cost of coverage and age, as opposed to just age as was in the House bill. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is expected to issue its analysis of the bill early next week.

Markets

  • Markets ended the week slightly higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.22% and closed at 2,438. The Dow Jones increased by 0.05% for the week and closed at 21,395. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.98% and the Dow is up 9.52%.
  • Interest rates held steady this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are now yielding 1.76% and 2.14%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil slid 3.78% this week, closing at $43.11 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices have fallen 19.75%.
  • The spot price of Gold ended the week modestly higher, closing at $1,256.67 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 9.51%.

 Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims increased by 3,000 from last week, coming in at 241,000. The Labor Department noted no unusual factors affecting the data this week. The four week moving average for claims moved up to 245,000.
  • Existing home sales rose 1.1% in May, beating consensus expectations of a -0.4% decline in sales. Sales of single family units rose 1.0%, while sales of multi-family unites increased by 1.6%. By region, existing home sales increased in the Northeast (+6.8%), West (+3.4%), and South (+2.2%), but declined in the Midwest (-5.9%).
    • New home sales increased by 2.9% in May, following a -7.9% decline in April. The result was better than consensus expectations, New home sales increased in the South (+21k), and West (+19k), but declined in the Northeast (-4k) and Midwest (-19k) regions.

Fact of the Week

  • Today (6/23) marks the 1 year anniversary of the historic Brexit vote where U.K. citizens elected to leave the European Union. Markets initially moved to the downside following the surprising result, but quickly rebounded. In the one year since the vote, the United Kingdom’s stock market (FTSE 100) has gained 21.8%, outpacing the overall MSCI European Index (+14.2%) and the S&P 500 (+17.7%). (Returns are stated in local currency)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Joel Binder, SVP – (630) 844-6767 jbinder@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz, VP – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Taking the Stress Out of Closings

Alaine Bussler, Residential Closing Manager00001

David Kozuh, First Vice President—Residential Lending

Making the decision to buy a new home is thrilling, and the last thing we want is for the mortgage process to interfere with that. That’s why we make sure you know what to expect each step of the way. If you have a question or don’t understand something in a document you’ve been sent, we are here to talk you through it.

New Transparency

In the past, much of the stress in the closing process came from the way lenders were required to provide disclosure and loan documents to you. It made it harder to know how much your home—and your loan—would really cost after fees. That was typically something that came at the very last minute, without adequate time to review.

That has changed. The disclosure requirements are now much easier to read and understand. We are able to give you the first document, The Loan Estimate, three days after you apply for a mortgage, and the second document, The Closing Disclosure, three days before you close. This gives you time to review the terms and amounts you are agreeing to and enables you to ask questions if there is anything you are unsure of.

The Loan Estimate

Like its name implies, this three-page document summarizes the terms and price of your loan. It provides the information needed to develop a better understanding of your mortgage quote, including the amount you can expect to pay monthly based on the estimated closing costs.

The Closing Disclosure

The Closing Disclosure is an itemized account of the final settlement expenses and is provided three days before you close. Specifically, it confirms the final terms, how much cash you will need to bring to your closing, the loan details and the total cost of the loan. The Closing Disclosure also provides an accounting of any changes in the amounts that appeared in the Loan Estimate, along with reasons for them.

In combination, the two documents enable you to understand what, if anything, changed before agreeing to the final terms.

Big Numbers Shouldn’t Lead to Tense Times

The changes to the disclosure law essentially make the way we work with our borrowers—taking the time to answer questions and being transparent about what’s being agreed to—standard to the industry.

Give us a call, at 877-966-0202 and let’s talk about what we can do to keep your mortgage experience as stress free as possible.

 

Fed rate increase, Qatar: Wealth Economic Update June 17, 2017

U.S. and World News

  • rate_balloon-491446733_360The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 1%-1.25% at its June meeting this week and signaled that there would be one more increase this year. While this move was widely expected, markets were more focused on the details regarding reduction of the balance sheet. The Fed indicated that they will begin shrinking the balance sheet and that each quarter going forward; they will allow higher amounts of securities to roll off the balance sheet without reinvestment.
  • The International Energy Agency stated that the conflict between a handful of Middle East countries and Qatar regarding accusations that Qatar is in support of Islamist militants is causing “logistical headaches”. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and the UAE have officially stopped working with Qatar and the UAE has banned oil tankers linked to Qatar. Egyptian finance minister Amr El-Garhy is not concerned about the possibility of financial repercussions resulting from the conflict and stated “It’s not a matter of a loss of money… it’s a matter of principle.”

Markets

  • Markets ended the week slightly higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.12% and closed at 2,433. The Dow Jones increased by 0.33% for the week and closed at a New All Time High of 21,384. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.70% and the Dow is up 9.47%.
  • Interest rates fell this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are now yielding 1.74% and 2.15%, respectively
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil slid 2.40% this week, closing at $44.73 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices have fallen 16.73%
  • The spot price of Gold ended the week lower, closing at $1,254.14 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 9.29%.

 Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 from last week, coming in at 237,000. The decline was largely attributed to California and other energy producing states. The four week moving average for claims moved up to 243,000.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.13% in May and the year-over-year rate fell 0.3% and came in at 1.9%. The decline was led by the drop in energy prices during the month.
  • Retail sales were down for the month declining by 0.3% versus expectations of no change.
    Core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline and building materials) were unchanged versus expectations of a 0.3% gain. Core April sales were revised up 0.5% which more than offset the miss for last month.

    • Housing starts fell by 5.5% in May to 1092k, which was below expectations. The decline was led by both multifamily and single-family homes in the Midwest and Southern regions.
    • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by 2.6 points to 94.5 in the preliminary June report. The drop marks a seven month low, but still remains a relatively high level.

Fact of the Week

  • The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has more than twice the number of listed securities as the NASDAQ exchange (8,500 vs. 3,100). Despite this difference, The NASDAQ, which lists mostly technology companies, averages more than double the daily trading volume of the NYSE (2 billion shares for the NASDAQ vs. 880 million for the NYSE). (Average daily trade volume based on 1-month average figure)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Joel Binder, SVP – (630) 844-6767 jbinder@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz, VP – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

UK Election, Qatar, Puerto Rico: Wealth Economic Update June 9, 2017

U.S. and World News

  • UKflag-518908074_360The decision to hold snap elections in the United Kingdom seems to have back-fired on Prime Minister Theresa May and her Conservative Party as they lost their majority with the Labour Party gaining significant ground in Thursday’s vote. In April, Theresa May decided to hold the snap general election in an attempt to gain a significant majority for her ahead of the Brexit negotiations but with the poor results there have been calls for her resignation. The split parliament could make Brexit negotiations with the UK’s European Union partners more difficult.
  • Four Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain) have cut off diplomatic ties with Qatar, as well as closing air and sea routes. This marked a significant escalation of a rift between the Persian Gulf countries that has been brewing for a few months. President Trump stated that he wished to “de-escalate” the situation but appeared to support the isolation of Qatar, noting that his message against funding terror and extremism is being heeded by those other countries in the region.
  • Citizens of Puerto Rico are voting this weekend in a referendum on the island’s political status. There will be three choices on the ballot: statehood, “current territorial status” and independence. It’s not clear what would happen in the case of any of these choices winning decisively or how Congress would interpret the results. This is the island’s fifth referendum since 1898 and comes amid a crippling economic crisis.

Markets

  • Markets were mixed this week. The S&P 500 dropped by 0.27% and closed at 2,432. The Dow Jones gained 0.33% for the week and closed at a New All Time High 21,272. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.57% and the Dow is up 8.84%.
  • Interest rates edged higher this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are now yielding 1.77% and 2.20%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil lost 3.80% this week, closing at $45.85 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices have fallen 14.65%.
  • The spot price of Gold ended the week higher, closing at $1,267.45 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 10.45%.

 Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 from last week, coming in at 245,000. Most of the decreases in claims were attributed to California and Tennessee, reversing their increases last week. The four week moving average for claims moved up to 242,000.

Fact of the Week

  • The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has more than twice the number of listed securities as the NASDAQ exchange (8,500 vs. 3,100). Despite this difference, The NASDAQ, which lists mostly technology companies, averages more than double the daily trading volume of the NYSE (2 billion shares for the NASDAQ vs. 880 million for the NYSE). (Average daily trade volume based on 1-month average figure)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Joel Binder, SVP – (630) 844-6767 jbinder@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz, VP – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

Climate, Illinois downgraded: Wealth Economic Update June 3, 2017

U.S. and World News

  • weather-171576532_360President Trump has announced that the United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. The landmark 2015 agreement between 195 nations aimed at fighting climate change and promoting clean energy, however Trump has been staunchly against the deal as he feels that it puts America at an economic disadvantage compared to many of the other countries in the agreement. While according to the language of the agreement makes it so the U.S. can’t officially withdraw until 2020, the administration says they will simply not enforce any of the provisions of the deal until that time. Trump added that the U.S. could begin negotiations to re-enter the Paris accord down the road or “a new transaction on terms that are fair to the United States, its businesses, its workers, its people, its taxpayers.”
  • Standard and Poor’s has downgraded the debt rating of the State of Illinois down to BBB- from BBB, one notch above ‘Junk’ status. This was the third downgrade of Illinois’ debt by S&P in the past year. Illinois is by far the lowest rated state and it is the only state that S&P has in the BBB tier and indications are that the rating could fall further in what was described as a ‘negative credit spiral’. Gabriel Patek of S&P noted, “If lawmakers fail to reach agreement on a budget with provisions designed to reduce the state’s structural deficit, it’s likely we will again lower the ratings.”

Markets

  • Markets ended the week on a positive note. The S&P 500 rose by 1.01% and closed at 2,430. The Dow Jones gained 0.69% for the week and closed at 21,144. Year to date, the S&P is up 9.87% and the Dow is up 8.48%.
  • Interest rates edged higher this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are now yielding 1.72% and 2.16%, respectively.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil lost 4.14% this week, closing at $47.74 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices have fallen 11.13%.
  • The spot price of Gold ended the week higher, closing at $1,279.17 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are up 11.47%.

 Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 from last week, coming in at 248,000. Most of the increases in claims were attributed to California and Tennessee. The four week moving average for claims ticked up to 238,000.
  • The Headline PCE index (measure of inflation) rose 0.2% in April, in line with expectations. Over the last year, PCE inflation has risen 1.7%.
    • Core PCE (excludes food and energy, preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve) rose by 0.15% in April, slightly better than expectations of 0.1%. Core PCE has risen 1.5% over the last 12 months.
  • The Case Shiller home price index rose by 0.9% in April, in line with expectations. Prices rose in all 20 cities measured with Minneapolis (+1.3%), Detroit (+1.2%), Seattle (+1.1%) and New York (+1.1%) showing the largest monthly increases. Over the last 12 months, home prices as measured by the index have risen 5.9%.

Fact of the Week

  • Apple (AAPL) reported cash and cash equivalents of $256.8B at the end of Q1. That is enough cash to purchase any company held in the S&P 500, outside of the top 10 holdings. Alternatively, Apple could purchase all of the bottom 45 companies held in the S&P 500. (Based on Market Capitalization)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Joel Binder, SVP – (630) 844-6767 jbinder@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz, VP – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.