Wealth Management Economic Update August 24, 2015

U.S. and World News

  • After the Chinese Yuan fell 3.6% last week, Chinese markets continued their decline this week. The Hang Seng officially entered the bear market territory as it has plummeted over 20% from its high in April. The IMF has given a sign that it will be at least another year until the Chinese currency will be added to its basket of reserve currencies. Concerns about China’s economy has rattled markets globally this week and has been blamed for the sharp decline of the S&P 500 which is down over 6% from its high in May.
  • Germany has voted in favor of the bailout package for Greece by a large margin, putting an end to negotiations lasting months. The first disbursement of €13B of funds from the bailout package was received by Greece just in time to make a €3.2B payment due to the ECB. €12B of this amount will be used to pay down debt. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced his resignation shortly after receiving the first disbursement of the €86B bailout deal.
  • oil_drill_320For the first time ever, the U.S. will allow limited sales of crude oil to Mexico. The oil that will be exported is expected to be high-quality shale which will help Mexico produce premium fuel. The U.S. will continue to receive the heavy oil coming from Mexico which is better for U.S refiners than the light oil they receive from Texas and North Dakota. WTI crude declined for the eighth straight week after the U.S revealed a large supply of 2.6M barrels.

Markets

  • Equity markets plunged this week amid global worries. The S&P 500 lost 5.77%, closing at 1,971. Similarly, the Dow Jones fell 5.82% and closed at 16,460. Year to date, the S&P is down 4.27% and the Dow is down 7.65%.
  • Yields in the Treasury markets fell this week. The 10 year Treasury bond now yields 2.05% while the 5 year Treasury bond now yields 1.43%.
  • The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its decline, and dropped by 6.73% closing at $40.21 per barrel. In 2015, WTI Oil prices are down 30.81%.
  • The spot price of Gold continued its weekly increase and gained 4.00% closing at $1,159.70 per ounce. Year to date, gold prices are down 2.09%.

Economic Data

  • Initial jobless claims came in at 277,000 which was an increase from the prior week’s figure of 273,000. The Labor Department noted that there were no special factors that affected the claims figure. The four week moving average for claims now stands at 271,500.
  • Existing home sales rose 2.0% in July vs. consensus of -1.1% to a high of 5.59 million. Single family homes sales are up 2.7% and condo and co-op sales fell -3.1%.
  • Housing starts were up 0.2% month-over-month in July, slightly higher than consensus forecasts.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% month-over-month in July, slightly lower than expected.

Fact of the Week

  • 64% of Millennials (ages 18-34 in 2015) believe they have a greater chance of winning the lottery than ever receiving a penny from Social Security once they retire. (T. Rowe Price)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Jean Van Keppel CFA® – (630) 906-5489 jvankeppel@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Joel Binder, SVP – (630) 844-6767 jbinder@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Tamara Wiley, CFP® – (630) 844-3222 twiley@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz, VP – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

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