China Tariffs, Gas Prices/Canada: Wealth Economic Update Dec. 7, 2018

Posted on December 7, 2018 by oldsecondbank

U.S. and World News

Following the meeting in Buenos Aires between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, President Trump agreed to delay a planned increase in the tariff rate on $200 billion of Chinese goods by 90 days while China agreed to begin purchasing agricultural, energy, and industrial commodities from the United States. The deal was initially met with skepticism by markets, however, China has begun preparations to begin importing soybeans and liquefied natural gas. Yesterday, the CFO of Chinese company Huawei was arrested for a violation of United States sanctions that prohibit doing business with Iran. The incident is not estimated to have any effect on trade negotiations between the United States and China.
In an effort to combat rapidly falling oil prices, Canada has unexpectedly announced an output cut of 325 thousand barrels per day, setting the precedent for other major oil producing nations to follow suit. Later in the week, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih stated that no OPEC deal was a real risk, just before Russia and OPEC members were to meet to discuss further production cuts. After Thursday’s summit concluded with no deal, OPEC met again to agree on 1.2 million barrels per day of production cuts. The deal is viewed as a victory United States oil producers as they are able to enjoy rising oil prices without having to cut production.

Markets

In another volatile week, stocks reversed course and headed sharply lower. The S&P 500 plummeted 4.55% and closed at 2,633. The Dow Jones lost 4.44% and closed at 24,389. Year to date, the S&P is up 0.40% and the Dow Jones is up 0.95%.
Yields continued their slide this week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.70% and 2.86%, respectively.
The spot price of WTI Crude Oil rose higher this week, gaining 2.75% and closing at $52.33 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down 12.94%.
The spot price of Gold rose 1.46% this week and closed at $1,248.60 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 4.16%.

Economic Data

Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 231,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims rose by 4,000 to 228,000. Claims rose by 4,000 in California, 2,000 in Illinois, 2,000 in Iowa, 2,000 in Texas, and 2,000 in Wisconsin.
Private sector employment rose by 179,000 in November versus expectations for a 195,000 gain.
The trade deficit rose $0.9 billion to -$55.5 billion in October versus expectations for a reading of $-55 billion.
The ISM manufacturing index rose by 1.6 points to 59.3 in November versus expectations for a reading of 57.5.
The ISM non-manufacturing index rose by 0.4 points to 60.7 versus expectations for a reading of 59.0.
Factory orders fell by 2.1% month-over-month in October versus expectations for a 2.0% decline.
Construction spending fell by 0.1% in October versus expectations for an increase of 0.4%.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 155,000 in November month-over-month versus expectations for an increase of 198,000. The lower-than-expected reading was led by slower growth in construction, leisure, and hospitality.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, in-line with expectations.
- The labor force participation rate remained at 62.9%
- Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month in November versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%.

Fact of the Week

Credit card debt in the US peaked in May 2008 before the global real estate crisis at $1.02 trillion. It then hit a low of $832 billion in April 2011. As of August 2018, US credit card debt climbed back to a record level of $1.04 trillion. (Source: Federal Reserve)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Rich Gartelmann CFP® – (630) 844-5730 rgartelmann@oldsecond.com
Steve Meves, CFA® – (630) 801-2217 – smeves@oldsecond.com
Brad Johnson CFA®, CFP® – (630) 906-5545 bjohnson@oldsecond.com
Jacqueline Runnberg CFP® – (630) 966-2462 jrunnberg@oldsecond.com
Ed Gorenz – (630) 906-5467 ejgorenz@oldsecond.com
Mike Demski – (630) 966-2430 mdemski@oldsecond.com
Mike Cava – (630) 281-4522 mcava@oldsecond.com

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Special Market Update: Dec. 6, 2018

Posted on December 6, 2018 by oldsecondbank

The market reversal that began on Tuesday has carried over into today’s trading as stocks continue to exhibit a high level of volatility. At the time of this writing, the markets are down 2.3% as measured by the S&P 500. The Dow is off 2.8% while international markets are down 1.2% and the Shanghai composite closed down 1.8%.

iStock-874979248 Stocks experienced a relief rally last week and into early this week on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s more dovish comments indicating a more measured approach to interest rate hikes in 2019. This was followed by optimism on progress regarding the trade issues between the U.S. and China last weekend at the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires. Initial reports stated that there was somewhat of a ‘trade truce’ reached between the two countries that would delay the escalation of tariffs for 90 days and include Chinese purchases of agriculture and liquid natural gas. Markets turned on Tuesday when the validity of those initial reports were called into question, something of which we have not seen any hard evidence.

The catalyst for today’s drop seems to be the arrest of the CFO of Chinese tech giant Huawei in Canada on charges that the firm violated U.S. sanctions by selling to Iran. This has been an issue with Chinese firms in the past, notably the recent fines levied against ZTE for similar allegations. Chinese officials are reportedly outraged by the detainment of Meng Wanzhou, daughter of the prominent CEO of the Chinese tech giant. The arrest, which occurred on the same day (December 1) as the Xi-Trump dinner, has stoked fears of an escalation of the trade tensions between the U.S. and China and that any progress that may have been made last weekend at the G-20 has been negated.

It is unclear what the ramifications of the arrest will have on the big picture trade negotiations but the United States’ handling of it will be a near term focus of markets given the prominence of Huawei (comparable to Apple in the U.S.) and the existing controversy of the firm’s development of 5G networks around the world. Old Second Wealth Management’s investment professionals will continue to monitor the situation and provide pertinent updates.

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Brexit, China Tariffs, Ukraine: Wealth Economic Update Dec. 1, 2018

Posted on December 1, 2018 by oldsecondbank

U.S. and World News

The House of Commons will vote on Theresa May’s new Brexit withdrawal agreement on December 11th, which calls for London to follow many of the European bloc’s rules in an effort to keep trade agreements intact. Meanwhile, people in the “Remain” group are hopeful that the European Union’s top court will determine that the U.K. can unilaterally cancel Brexit after it has been completed. European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has advised Britain that this agreement is “the only one possible”.
President Trump has threatened to raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods effective January 1st and institute tariffs on $267 billion more Chinese imports that would include iPhones and laptops. The announcement preludes the G20 summit in Argentina taking place this weekend that will be attended by President Trump, Xi Jinping. President Trump and the Chinese President are expected to have a dinner meeting on Saturday night to discuss trade.
Tensions are rising between Vladimir Putin and Ukraine after Russia captured and fired upon three Ukrainian navy vessels that had entered the Kerch strait near Crimea last weekend. Russia is now planning to deploy more surface-to-air missile systems to the area. Ukraine is calling for NATO to deploy warships to the sea of Azov, between the two countries.

Markets

Stocks rebounded this week. The S&P 500 gained 4.91% and closed at 2,760.16. The Dow Jones rose 5.52% and closed at 25,538.46. Year to date, the S&P is up 5.10% and the Dow Jones is up 5.54%.
Yields dropped again from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.82% and 2.99%, respectively.
The spot price of WTI Crude Oil rose slightly this week, up 0.36% and closing at $50.60 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down 16.17%.
The spot price of Gold fell 0.07% this week and closed at $1,222.12 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 6.19%.

Economic Data

Initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 234,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims rose by 4,000 to 223,000. Claims rose by 5,000 in New York, 3,000 in Pennsylvania, and 2,000 in Georgia.
The core PCE price index ex-food and energy rose by 0.10% month-over-month in October versus expectations for a 0.2%. The year-over-year rate fell 0.2% to 1.8% versus expectations for 1.9%.
Personal income rose by 0.5% month-over-month in October versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Consumer spending rose by 0.6% in October versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Pending home sales fell by 2.6% in October versus expectations for a 0.5% increase. Declines were led by the West region.
Sales of new single-family homes fell by 8.9% in October to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 544k versus expectations of 575k. This is the lowest level since March 2016.
Second-quarter GDP growth was unrevised and remained at 3.5% versus expectations for a revision to 3.6%.
- The October goods trade deficit increased by $1.2 billion to $77.2 billion, versus expectations for a reading of $77.0 billion.
- Wholesale inventories rose 0.7% in October versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell 2.2 points to 135.7 in November, in-line with expectations.

Fact of the Week

Outstanding student loan debt in the US doubled from $360 million to $720 billion from 3/31/05 to 12/31/09. It double again to $1.44 trillion as of 9/30/18.

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5 Myths That Keep Millennials From Becoming Homeowners

Posted on November 30, 2018 by oldsecondbank

Frederick Nosal — First Vice President, Residential Lending

Though most Millennials are already well down the path of “adulting,” with careers, car and student loan repayments, and even starting to save for retirement, many haven’t taken a critical next step in their financial lives: homeownership.

Behind this hesitation are a handful of persistent myths.

Myth# 1: Renting saves me money.

Rent is an expense you pay to live in someone else’s real estate investment. If you were spending that same amount on a mortgage payment, you would actually be investing in an asset you own. It would be yours to sell and borrow against. It could even appreciate over time, which would help you build long-term wealth. Here’s a calculator that can help you put this in dollars—potentially your own.

Myth#2: I don’t make enough to buy a home.

You may not be able to buy your dream home right away, but the odds are good you can find one you’d be comfortable owning and can already afford. After all, you won’t be paying for your home all at once. While you can try different scenarios online to see what’s affordable, we recommend first-timers talk to an Old Second Mortgage banker. Not all mortgages are alike. Some lenders, like Old Second, participate in a variety of programs for first-time buyers that make affordability easier.

Myth# 3: I still have student loans, so I can’t get a mortgage.

While your student loan balance may seem high, just focusing on how much you owe can be misleading. The amount you are required to pay back each month is what influences your mortgage approval. Also, federal student loan programs offer numerous options to ensure your payments are affordable, even with a car loan and mortgage payment. Many borrowers are able to make adjustments that allow them to comfortably repay their debt and make a housing move.

Myth# 4: It’ll be years before I can afford a down payment.

While experienced homebuyers typically make a larger down payment, first-time mortgage programs can require far less. Some are available with as little as a $1,000 investment. Depending on where you live, you may be able to access grants that cover a portion or all your down payment. This is where working with an Old Second Mortgage banker comes in handy. We can help you access the right programs for your situation.

Myth# 5: Owning a home is a big responsibility.

While having a big property can mean a lot of yardwork and maintenance, you have options that reduce the “sweat equity” associated with homeownership. From new construction to high-rise condos or townhomes with shared maintenance costs, you can own without giving up your weekends to home maintenance chores.

Myth #6: Getting a mortgage is complicated.

You don’t have to do this alone. Talk to us. We listen and are always ready to answer questions. The only dumb question is the one you don’t ask, so ask us anything. We’ll help you understand what’s affordable, calculate how much different types of properties will cost and prequalify you so it’s easier to work with a real estate agent.

We’re here—online, by phone and in person. As your community bank, we aren’t going anywhere. So, ready when you are. After all, you may not do this every day, but we do.

Brexit, China Tariffs, CA Wildfires, Saudis: Wealth Economic Update Nov. 23, 2018

Posted on November 23, 2018 by oldsecondbank

U.S. and World News

Brexiteers had warned of “Judgement Day,” but opponents of British Prime Minister Theresa May are reportedly six letters short of the 48 threshold needed to trigger a no confidence vote on her leadership. May said on Sunday that toppling her would risk delaying Brexit and she would not let talk of the challenge distract her from getting the support of the U.K. business community ahead of a critical week of Brexit negotiations.
“We put tariffs on $250B in Chinese goods, and we could more than double that number,” Vice President Mike Pence told the APEC summit, stating the “U.S. will not change course until China changes its ways.” The warning follows remarks made by President Trump that helped the Dow close higher on Friday. The U.S. “may not” need to impose more tariffs after China sent over measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions, he said, adding that “we’ll probably get to the four or five big things that were left off” the list.
The current wildfires in California could pressure insurers operating in the state given underwriting losses have the potential to approach around $6.8B. “They are not permitted to take all the given year’s losses and cram them into next year’s rates,” California Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones told CNBC. A state ordinance instead spreads repayment of property and casualty insurance payouts over the next twenty years
President Trump has called the CIA assessment blaming Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi “very premature” and said he will receive a complete report of the case on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia plays an important role in the oil markets, counters Iran’s influence in the region, and President Trump has repeatedly said he doesn’t want to harm U.S. defense contractors by blocking U.S. arms sales to the kingdom.

Markets

Stocks retreated again this week. The S&P 500 fell 3.76% and closed at 2,632.56. The Dow Jones dropped 4.39% and closed at 24,285. Year to date, the S&P is up 0.26% and the Dow Jones is up 0.32.
Yields dropped slightly from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.87% and 3.04%, respectively.
The spot price of WTI Crude Oil fell sharply this week, losing another 11.10% and closing at $50.39 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down 16.17%.
The spot price of Gold rose 0.05% this week and closed at $1,223.93 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 6.06%.

Economic Data

Housing starts increased 1.5% in October to 1,228k, and September starts were revised up 9k to 1,210k. The composition of the report was somewhat softer, as the volatile multi-family category increased 10.3% but single-family starts declined 1.8%. Housing starts declined in the Northeast (-34.1%) and West (-4.6%), and increased in the Midwest (+32.9%) and in the South (+4.7%), where there is potential scope for further recovery as the rebound from Hurricane Florence was likely offset by a drag from Hurricane Michael..
Existing home sales increased 1.4% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.22 million units, above expectations and the first increase in 6 months. October home sales increased among single-family units (+0.9%) and among condos and co-ops (+5.3%). Sales rose in the West (+2.8%), South (+1.9%), and Northeast (+1.5%) regions and declined in the Midwest (-0.8%).
The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined 0.8pt to 97.5 in the final November report from the preliminary report. The survey’s current conditions (-0.9pt to 112.3) and expectations (-0.6pt to 88.1) components both moved down from their preliminary readings. The report’s measure of 5- to 10- year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.6%.
In the week ended November 17, initial jobless claims increased by 3k to 224k—the highest level since June—against expectations for a decrease. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 2k to 219k. Jobless claims increased by 3k in California and Texas, and by 2k in Illinois. Claims declined by 2k in New York. Nationwide continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—declined 2k to 1,668k in the previous week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged on a rounded basis at 1.2%.

Fact of the Week

The S&P 500 has gone 46 trading days (as of 11/23) since it last closed at an all-time high. Since a record close on 3/28/13, the longest that the S&P 500 has gone between record closes is 286 trading days, between 5/21/15 and 7/11/16. (Source: BTN Research)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

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Brexit, California Wildfires: Wealth Economic Update Nov. 17, 2018

Posted on November 17, 2018 by oldsecondbank

U.S. and World News

The British pound had a volatile week as uncertainty around the outcome of a Brexit deal rose higher. Theresa May has lost transport minister Jo Johnson and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab within the past week and risks further resignations of pro-EU ministers. There was a Cabinet meeting held this week in an attempt to gain support on an agreement with a focus on the controversial Irish border. The deal would force Britain to abide by European rules and would make it very difficult for Britain to negotiate trade deals with other countries. Citing Brexiteer sources, Telegraph Chief Political Correspondent Christopher Hope tweeted “The threshold of 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May will be passed today. They are expecting a no confidence vote in the PM on Tuesday”.
The death toll has climbed to 65 and over 600 people are missing in the deadliest wildfire in California state history. The two major fires are the Camp Fire, just north of Sacramento, which is 45% contained and the Woolsey Fire, just outside of Los Angeles, which is 69% contained. The state of California is also battling very serious air quality issues as a result of the fire, with the smoke continuing to flow southwest. The California utility company PG&E’s faulty power lines are believed to have started the fire.

Markets

Stocks retreated this week from last week’s gains. The S&P 500 fell 1.54% and closed at 2,736. The Dow Jones dropped 2.15% and closed at 25,413. Year to date, the S&P is up 4.12% and the Dow Jones is up 4.84%.
Yields dropped sharply from last week and the yield curve steepened. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 2.88% and 3.07%, respectively.
The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued falling this week, shedding another 5.63% and closing at $56.80 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down 5.51%.
The spot price of Gold rose 0.99% this week and closed at $1,221.59 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 6.23%.

Economic Data

Initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 216,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims rose by 1,000 to 215,000. Claims increased by 2,000 in New York and fell by 3,000 in Michigan, 2,000 in North Carolina, and 2,000 in California.
Retail sales rose by 0.8% in October versus expectations for a 0.5% increase. This was led by sales at gas stations.
- Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.7% versus expectations for a 0.5% increase.
- Retail sales ex-auto & gas rose by 0.3% versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Import prices rose by 0.5% in October versus expectations for a 0.1% increase.
- Import prices-ex petroleum rose by 0.2% versus expectations for a flat reading.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell by 9.3 points to 12.9 in November versus expectations for a reading of 20.0.
The Empire State manufacturing index increased by 2.2 points to 23.3 in November versus expectations for a reading of 20.0.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.33% in October, meeting expectations. The increase was driven by higher energy prices. The year-over-year rate came in a 2.53%, also meeting expectations.
- Core CPI rose by 0.19% in October, meeting expectations. The year-over-year rate came in at 2.15%, also meeting expectations.
Industrial production rose by 0.1% in October versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Manufacturing production rose by 0.3% in October versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.

Fact of the Week

As of October 31, the US was producing 11.2 million barrels of crude oil a day, while importing 7.3 million barrels. US oil production has risen substantially from October 2016, when the US produced only 8.5 million barrels and imported 9 million. (Source: BTN Research)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

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An Interview with Director Patti Temple Rocks

Posted on November 12, 2018 by oldsecondbank

by Robert DiCosola

Introduction

Patti Temple Rocks has been a Director of Old Second Bancorp since 2015. She is a member of the Board’s Compensation Committee and IT Steering Commit- tee. She has had a distinguished career in the Advertising, Marketing and Communications space, and has held various leadership positions for some industry-leading corporations.

Her most recent role was Managing Director/Client Innovation Officer for Golin, a global communications agency. Previous career highlights include Vice President of Public Affairs, Brand and Reputation for The Dow Chemical Company, and Chief Reputation Officer for Leo Burnett Worldwide. Currently, Patti is Founder and Head of Temple Rocks Consulting, where she is utilizing her marketing and communications experience and expertise for clients looking for growth, both for their business and of their people.

“Patti, with your many years of experience in advertising, marketing and communications, talk to us about how that experience has translated into helpful perspectives and insights as a director for a financial institution.”

PTR: “My background is certainly different than some of the other directors, many of whom are from the financial services industry. My approach at first was to listen closely to the issues and challenges facing the Bank at the Board level, and then make contributions within my areas of expertise. I think that (Board members from) different industries are very relevant to the overall decision

making because of the different perspectives they bring. For example, I noticed that the consumer challenges facing the banking industry are similar to those facing other industries—how to market their products and services to the Millennial demographic and to Gen Z–the next generation after Millennials–and how predictive analytics can play a role in that decision-making process.”

“When you were initially approached as a possible candidate for Old Second’s Board of Directors, what were some of your thoughts out of the gate? What ultimately led you to accept the directorship?”

PTR: “I was intrigued, to say the least, as one of my long-term personal goals has been to serve on a publicly traded board of directors. I did have some concern about my lack of direct experience in financial services but I also knew that in today’s complex environment, boards are expected to ask questions and challenge the status quo to some extent, and not simply be a rubber stamp. I could tell from my conversations with the Bank’s management and other directors that there were highly capable people guiding the Bank with deep financial experience. I felt confident that I could add something differ- ent and hopefully complementary to what they already had. With that perspective, I was honored to say yes to the OSBC opportunity.”

“What would you say are three of the most critical competencies, characteristics or credentials of an effective Board member?”

PTR: “Curiosity is one of the most important…As Board members, we need to have the capacity to ask thought-provoking and challenging questions. (For example): ‘If we didn’t do that, what might happen?’

“Another important characteristic is empa- thy. As directors, we can add value by considering the perspective of customers and employees. At the end of the day, an unengaged employee base will almost always result in disappointed customers. If we can assist Bank management with insights regarding the overall customer experience, that’s a value-add.”

“The last one would be preparation. It’s never a good idea to attend a board or committee meeting blind, without advance preparation. When I first started with the Bank’s Board, there were a zillion acronyms I had to familiarize myself with, such as the OCC and OREO loans and many others that were simply not a part of my normal vocabulary. I couldn’t pretend that I knew what these were…I needed clarification so that I could be conversant and relevant to the discussion. I am very grateful that my fellow directors were very patient with me as I asked questions!”

“Diversity and Inclusion is an important reality for successful companies these days, including here at Old Second. Can you give us some examples of how D/I played an important role in a company’s success?”

PTR: “Without question, Diversity is essential to a company’s success, but not in a numbers-oriented, quota-based way. And there is no Inclusion without Diversity, and vice versa. In an effort to become more diverse, companies need to be careful to not make inappropriate hires that ultimately become bad hires—and often at no fault of the person hired. A diverse hire who is not on-boarded with care is never going to feel included in the organization. Companies need to take even greater care to make sure they have an inclusive environment to welcome the diverse hires into.

“I also believe very strongly in a broad view of Diversity. It is not simply skin color, gender or sexual preference. The best practice today is a workplace that not only looks different from the outside but is also one that values a variety of experiences and perspectives. For me, personally, I believe it is much more important to value my career experiences and insights as a working mom and a 50+ professional than simply the fact that I’m a female. One example that comes to mind is from the auto industry in the 1980’s…- Ford engineers developed ‘pregnancy bellies’ and asked their design engineers to wear them to understand how to design cars for families—including families with pregnant women. While their intentions were good and they got a lot of good PR for the effort, why not just hire some competent women engineers instead of outfitting the men?

“A workforce segment that seems to be getting overlooked these days, and a particular passion of mine, is the older worker. I’m writing a book that addresses this issue: #I’m Not- Done: It’s Time to Talk about Ageism in the Workplace. We must work to remove the stereotype that some workers lose value and relevance after a certain age.”

“What positive signs do you see going forward for the banking industry? What about challenges?”

PTR: “With the greatly improving economy, the future is looking much brighter for financial institutions. The days of banks being constantly slammed and criticized appear to be over, and trust has been established again. That’s the good news, but one of the challenges I see is providing relevant banking experiences to the generations coming up. Traditional brick-and-mortar banks simply are not an important part of their lives…Everything they do banking-wise is mobile, digital. This is very different from previous generations who still prefer one-on-one, in- person transactions. This will require entirely different approaches to what we offer and how we do it to ensure that the services the Bank provide are valued by all these age groups.”

“What makes Old Second Bank’s Mission meaningful to you?”

PTR: I would describe Old Second’s Mission in one word: authentic. You can determine a lot about a company’s culture if you would just ‘turn off the volume and watch the movie.’ I guess another way of saying that is pay attention to what I do, not just what I say. From my experience, if you did that here at the Bank, you will see an organization that truly cares about its employees, that I’m a female. One example that comes to mind is from the auto industry in the 1980’s…- Ford engineers developed ‘pregnancy bellies’ and asked their design engineers to wear them to understand how to design cars for families—including families with pregnant women. While their intentions were good and they got a lot of good PR for the effort, why not just hire some competent women engineers instead of outfitting the men?

“A workforce segment that seems to be getting overlooked these days, and a particular passion while at the same time being a growth and performance-based culture. Mission statements can’t be just flowery words on a piece of paper. There also needs to be accountability at every level of the organization.”

“Patti maintains a website (pattitemplerocks.com) which includes a number of thought-provoking blogs on a variety of topics. One that caught my eye particularly was ‘Don’t Let the Crush of Work Crush You.’ Would you elaborate on what prompted you to write that blog, and give us an executive summary on what you mean by “Don’t Let the Crush of Work Crush You.”

PTR: “In most businesses the goal is to enhance profitability and to make your numbers. This is especially apparent in the 4th quarter of the year, when the push is on to deliver and capture revenue for year-end, and clients have cash that they need to spend or lose it as the fiscal year comes to close. This makes for a particularly crazy end to the year in the agency business. I’ve walked the halls (at previous employers) and have seen the stress and exhaustion on the faces of employees who don’t have much more to give. I’ve found that in these stressful moments it’s so important to not lose the human factor. Continue to maintain empathy for those around you. When we get super busy, it’s easy to lose sight of simple, every-day courtesies—like being kind to one another and treating each other with respect.

“It’s also important to not get caught up in the stress of the moment and try to maintain a close link to what’s truly important to you. We can and should turn our focus to our customers and colleagues, but at the same time we need to take care of ourselves. I’ve also found that maintain- ing a sense of humor is essential! Being able to laugh is a gift not just to ourselves, but to others. And I believe that makes our work better.”

Iran, Midterm Elections: Wealth Economic Update Nov. 9, 2018

Posted on November 9, 2018 by oldsecondbank

U.S. and World News

On Monday, sanctions on Iran imposed by the United States that target the oil, banking and transportations sectors have taken affect. The sanctions were imposed as a means to end Iran’s nuclear program. Eight countries were given temporary exemptions, allowing them to continue to import Iranian petroleum. This will buy time for Iran to continue to negotiate their missile and nuclear programs with the United States, however, Iran is taking a tough stance on the sanctions. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that Iran will “sell its oil and break sanctions” and that “This is an economic war against Iran, but we are prepared to resist any pressure”.
In a widely expected outcome, the 2018 midterm election resulted in the Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives while the Republicans retained control of the Senate. In two closely watched, key races, Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Tallahassee Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum for Governor of Florida and Republican Ted Cruz was able to keep his Texas Senate seat after defeating Beto O’Rourke. Also, 29-year-old Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez became the youngest women ever elected to Congress after her victory in New York’s 14th district.

Markets

Stocks continued their climb higher this week, despite the declines seen today. The S&P 500 rose 2.21% and closed at 2,781. The Dow Jones gained 3.00% and closed at 25,989. Year to date, the S&P is up 5.72% and the Dow Jones is up 7.10%.
Yields ended the week mostly unchanged from last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 3.04% and 3.18%, respectively.
The spot price of WTI Crude Oil slid into a bear market this week, losing another 5.26% and closing at $59.82 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are down 0.48%.
The spot price of Gold fell 1.91% this week and closed at $1,209.35 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 7.17%.

Economic Data

Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 214,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims did not change and remained at 214,000. Claims fell by 5,000 in Illinois and by 3,000 in Missouri.
The ISM non-manufacturing index declined by 1.3 points to 60.3 versus expectations for a reading of 59.0.
The producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.6% month-over-month in October versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. The year-over-year figure rose by 2.9%.
- PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services rose by 0.2% month-over-month, in-line with expectations. The year-over-year figure rose by 2.8%.
The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell by 0.3 points to 98.3 in the November preliminary reading versus expectations for a reading of 98.0.
Wholesale inventories rose by 0.4% for September versus expectations for a 0.3% increase.

Fact of the Week

Tuesday’s Midterm elections saw Democrats taking control of the house while Republicans bolstered their control of the senate. Historically, returns in the S&P 500 under a Republican President, Republican Senate, and Democratic House are 10.8% annualized. (Source: Strategas)

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

China, Brazil election: Wealth Economic Update Nov. 3, 2018

Posted on November 3, 2018 by oldsecondbank

U.S. and World News

China made progress this week towards making its financial markets more investor friendly. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it will begin increasing liquidity, reduce unnecessary interference in trading, and increase fairness in the markets for investors. President Trump ramped up trade threats if negotiations with Chinese President Xi fail, stating that the U.S. is planning tariffs on the remaining $257 billion in Chinese goods. Reports surfaced early this morning that President Trump had asked U.S. officials to draft a trade agreement with China, however, a few members of the administration later said that an agreement is not imminent.
In a controversial victory, right winged presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidential election with 55% of the vote. The Brazilian Real gained 9.7% against the U.S. Dollar and the Bovespa stock index rose 13.5% in the last 30 days as the market predicted a Bolsonaro victory leading up to the election. Brazil has gone through years of corruption scandals, brutal elections and protests, the impeachment of a president, and negative economic growth. Bolsonaro campaigned on restoring discipline and law-and-order, putting an end to the corruption.

Markets

Stocks rebounded from correction levels this week as volatility remains elevated. The S&P 500 rose 2.45% and closed at 2,723. The Dow Jones gained 2.36% and closed at 25,271. Year to date, the S&P is up 3.47% and the Dow Jones is up 4.03%.
Yields also rebounded dramatically from their lows last week. The 5 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes are yielding 3.04% and 3.22%, respectively.
The spot price of WTI Crude Oil continued its slide this week, losing a whopping 6.92% and closing at $62.91 per barrel. Year to date, Oil prices are up 4.66%.
The spot price of Gold ended the week almost unchanged from last week, losing 0.05% and closing at $1,232.94 per ounce. Year to date, Gold prices are down 5.36%.

Economic Data

Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 214,000 this week. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 2,000 to 214,000. Claims fell by 3,000 in California and by 2,000 in Georgia. Jobless claims still remain high in hurricane affected states.
The core PCE index (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.15% month-over-month in September and the year-over-year figure came in at 1.97%, in line with expectations.
Personal income rose by 0.2% month-over-month in September versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Personal spending rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, in-line with expectations.
The Conference Board index of consumer conference rose to 137.9 versus expectations for a reading of 135.9. This is the highest level since 2000.
Private sector employment rose 227,000 in October versus expectations for a 187,000 increase.
Factory orders increased by 0.7% month-over-month in September versus expectations for a 0.5% increase.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 250,000 in October month-over-month versus expectations of a 200,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, in-line with expectations.
- Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month in October and the year-over-year figure rose by 0.3% to 3.1%, a new cycle-high.
- The trade deficit rose by $700 million to $54 billion in September, versus expectations for a $300 million increase.

Fact of the Week

The last time Amazon saw a 20% drawdown in stock price was in February of 2016, when its market cap was $227 Billion. In the period from September 4th to October 30th, Amazon fell nearly 25% and lost $249 Billion in market cap.

Please contact a member of the Wealth Management Department if you have any questions about this information.

Visit Old Second Wealth Management

Non-deposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC nor any govt agency; not a deposit of, or guaranteed by, the bank; may lose value.

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